The meeting allegedly happened on the 11th. The Iranian market rallied immediately after the election. It was clearly based on something specific to a Trump administration. Maybe it’s large-scale insider trading from Iranian diplomats?
I also think the market genuinely, unironically disbelieves everything Trump says about tariffs in a way they don’t about his cabinet nominations (pharma stocks tanked after RFK got HHS).
The man literally wrote that he was going to institute 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, to exactly zero movement on Canadian stocks.
If I were guessing I might say that maybe this is happening:
Right now the more trade China has with Iran the more America might make a fuss. Either complaining politically, putting tariffs, or calling on general favours and good will for it to stop. But if America starts making a fuss anyway, or burns all its good will, then their is suddenly no downside to trading with Iran. Now substitute “China” for any and all countries (for example the UK, France and Germany, who all stayed in the Iran Nuclear Deal even after the USA pulled out).
Musk met with Iran ambassador. maybe the market thinks they cut a deal?
The meeting allegedly happened on the 11th. The Iranian market rallied immediately after the election. It was clearly based on something specific to a Trump administration. Maybe it’s large-scale insider trading from Iranian diplomats?
I also think the market genuinely, unironically disbelieves everything Trump says about tariffs in a way they don’t about his cabinet nominations (pharma stocks tanked after RFK got HHS).
The man literally wrote that he was going to institute 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, to exactly zero movement on Canadian stocks.
That Iran thing is weird.
If I were guessing I might say that maybe this is happening:
Right now the more trade China has with Iran the more America might make a fuss. Either complaining politically, putting tariffs, or calling on general favours and good will for it to stop. But if America starts making a fuss anyway, or burns all its good will, then their is suddenly no downside to trading with Iran. Now substitute “China” for any and all countries (for example the UK, France and Germany, who all stayed in the Iran Nuclear Deal even after the USA pulled out).