I suspect that, thirty years from now with the benefit of hindsight, we will look at air travel the way we now look at tetraethyl lead. Not just because of nCoV, but also because of disease burdens we’ve failed to attribute to infections, in much the same way we failed to attribute crime to lead.
Over the past century, there have been two big changes in infectious disease. The first is that we’ve wiped out or drastically reduced most of the diseases that cause severe, attributable death and disability. The second is that we’ve connected the world with high-speed transport links, so that the subtle, minor diseases can spread further.
I strongly suspect that a significant portion of unattributed and subclinical illnesses are caused by infections that counterfactually would not have happened if air travel were rare or nonexistent. I think this is very likely for autoimmune conditions, which are mostly unattributed, are known to sometimes be caused by infections, and have risen greatly over time. I think this is somewhat likely for chronic fatigue and depression, including subclinical varieties that are extremely widespread. I think this is plausible for obesity, where it is approximately #3 of my hypotheses.
Or, put another way: the “hygiene hypothesis” is the opposite of true.
Disruption of learning mechanisms by excessive variety and separation between nutrients and flavor. Endocrine disruption from adulterants and contaminants (a class including but not limited to BPA and PFOA).
we’ve wiped out or drastically reduced most of the diseases that cause severe, attributable death and disability
we’ve wiped out or drastically reduced some diseases in some partsof the world. There’s a lot of infectious diseases still out there: HIV, influenza, malaria, tuberculosis, cholera, ebola, infectious forms of pneumonia, diarrhoea, hepatitis ….
we’ve connected the world with high-speed transport links, so that the subtle, minor diseases can spread further.
Disease has always spread—wherever people go, far and wide. It just took longer over land and sea (rather than the nodes appearing on global maps that we can see these days).
… very likely for autoimmune conditions … have risen greatly over time
“autoimmune conditions” covers a long list of conditions lumped together because they involve the immune system ‘going wrong’. (and the immune system is, at least to me, a mind-bogglingly complex system)
Given the wide range of conditions that could be “auto-immune” saying they’ve risen greatly over time is vague. Data for more specific conditions?
Increased rates of automimmune conditions could just be due to the increase in the recognition, diagnosis and recording of cases (I don’t think so but it should be considered).
What things other than high speed travel have also changed in that time-frame that could affect our immune systems? The quality of air we breathe, the food we eat, the water we drink, our environment, levels of exposure to fauna and flora, exposure to chemicals, pollutants …? Air travel is just one factor.
I think this is somewhat likely for chronic fatigue and depression, including subclinical varieties that are extremely widespread.
Fatigue and depression are clinical symptoms—they are either present or not (to what degree—mild/severe is another matter) so sub-clinical is poor terminology here. Sub-clinical disease has no recognisable clinical findings—undiagnosed/unrecognised would be closer. But I agree there is widespread issues with health and well-being these days.
Or, put another way: the “hygiene hypothesis” is the opposite of true.
Opposite of true? Are you saying you believe the “hygiene hypothesis” is false?
In which case, that’s a big leap from your reasoning above.
I suspect that, thirty years from now with the benefit of hindsight, we will look at air travel the way we now look at tetraethyl lead. Not just because of nCoV, but also because of disease burdens we’ve failed to attribute to infections, in much the same way we failed to attribute crime to lead.
Over the past century, there have been two big changes in infectious disease. The first is that we’ve wiped out or drastically reduced most of the diseases that cause severe, attributable death and disability. The second is that we’ve connected the world with high-speed transport links, so that the subtle, minor diseases can spread further.
I strongly suspect that a significant portion of unattributed and subclinical illnesses are caused by infections that counterfactually would not have happened if air travel were rare or nonexistent. I think this is very likely for autoimmune conditions, which are mostly unattributed, are known to sometimes be caused by infections, and have risen greatly over time. I think this is somewhat likely for chronic fatigue and depression, including subclinical varieties that are extremely widespread. I think this is plausible for obesity, where it is approximately #3 of my hypotheses.
Or, put another way: the “hygiene hypothesis” is the opposite of true.
I’m curious about your first and second hypothesis regarding obesity?
Disruption of learning mechanisms by excessive variety and separation between nutrients and flavor. Endocrine disruption from adulterants and contaminants (a class including but not limited to BPA and PFOA).
Some comments:
we’ve wiped out or drastically reduced some diseases in some partsof the world. There’s a lot of infectious diseases still out there: HIV, influenza, malaria, tuberculosis, cholera, ebola, infectious forms of pneumonia, diarrhoea, hepatitis ….
Disease has always spread—wherever people go, far and wide. It just took longer over land and sea (rather than the nodes appearing on global maps that we can see these days).
“autoimmune conditions” covers a long list of conditions lumped together because they involve the immune system ‘going wrong’. (and the immune system is, at least to me, a mind-bogglingly complex system)
Given the wide range of conditions that could be “auto-immune” saying they’ve risen greatly over time is vague. Data for more specific conditions?
Increased rates of automimmune conditions could just be due to the increase in the recognition, diagnosis and recording of cases (I don’t think so but it should be considered).
What things other than high speed travel have also changed in that time-frame that could affect our immune systems? The quality of air we breathe, the food we eat, the water we drink, our environment, levels of exposure to fauna and flora, exposure to chemicals, pollutants …? Air travel is just one factor.
Fatigue and depression are clinical symptoms—they are either present or not (to what degree—mild/severe is another matter) so sub-clinical is poor terminology here. Sub-clinical disease has no recognisable clinical findings—undiagnosed/unrecognised would be closer. But I agree there is widespread issues with health and well-being these days.
Opposite of true? Are you saying you believe the “hygiene hypothesis” is false?
In which case, that’s a big leap from your reasoning above.