My opinion is that institutional actors (corporate and military research institutes) will not deploy misaligned AI. They will be aware that their AI is misaligned and will not deploy it until it is aligned,
Why do you think that the creators of AI will know if its misaligned? If its anything like current AI research, we are talking people applying a large amount of compute to an algorithm they have fairly limited understanding of. Once you have the AI, you can try running tests on it, but if the AI realises its being tested, it will try to trick you, acting nice in testing and only turning on you once deployed. You probably won’t know if the AI is aligned without a lot of theoretical results that don’t yet exist. And the AI’s behaviour is likely to be actively misleading.
Why do you think AI can’t cause harm until it is “deployed”. The AI is running on a computer in a research lab. The security of this computer may be anywhere from pretty good to totally absent. The AI’s level of hacking skills is also unknown. If the AI is very smart, its likely that it can hack its way out and get all over the internet with no one ever deciding to release it.
What’s never explained is how AI could suddenly become so powerful that it can achieve what entire nations of extremely smart people could never do.
How could a machine move that big rock when all the strongest people in the tribe have tried and failed? The difference between “very smart human” and the theoretical limits of intelligence may well be like the difference between “very fast cheetah” and the speed of light.
“why wouldn’t we just unplug the damn thing”
Stopping WW2 is easy, the enemy needs air right, so just don’t give them any air and they will be dead in seconds.
Reasons unplugging an AI might not be the magic solution.
You don’t know it’s misaligned. Its acting nicely so far. You don’t realize it’s plotting something.
It’s all over the internet. Millions of computers all over the world, including some on satellites.
It’s good at lying and manipulating humans. Maybe someone is making a lot of money from the AI. Maybe the AI hacked a bank and hired security guards for its datacenter. Maybe some random gullible person has been persuaded to run the AI on their gaming pc with a cute face and a sob story. If anyone in the world could download the AI’s code off the internet and run it and get superhuman advice, many people would. Almost all our communication is digital, so good luck convincing people that the AI needs to be destroyed when the internet is full of very persuasive pro AI arguments.
Its developed is own solar powered nanobot hardware.
Turning the AI works a fraction of a second after the AI is turned on. But this is useless, no one would turn an AI on and then immediately turn it off again. The person turning an unaligned AI on is likely mistaken in some way about what their AI will do. The AI will make sure not to correct that flawed conception until its too late.
Why do you think that the creators of AI will know if its misaligned? If its anything like current AI research, we are talking people applying a large amount of compute to an algorithm they have fairly limited understanding of. Once you have the AI, you can try running tests on it, but if the AI realises its being tested, it will try to trick you, acting nice in testing and only turning on you once deployed. You probably won’t know if the AI is aligned without a lot of theoretical results that don’t yet exist. And the AI’s behaviour is likely to be actively misleading.
Why do you think AI can’t cause harm until it is “deployed”. The AI is running on a computer in a research lab. The security of this computer may be anywhere from pretty good to totally absent. The AI’s level of hacking skills is also unknown. If the AI is very smart, its likely that it can hack its way out and get all over the internet with no one ever deciding to release it.
How could a machine move that big rock when all the strongest people in the tribe have tried and failed? The difference between “very smart human” and the theoretical limits of intelligence may well be like the difference between “very fast cheetah” and the speed of light.
Stopping WW2 is easy, the enemy needs air right, so just don’t give them any air and they will be dead in seconds.
Reasons unplugging an AI might not be the magic solution.
You don’t know it’s misaligned. Its acting nicely so far. You don’t realize it’s plotting something.
It’s all over the internet. Millions of computers all over the world, including some on satellites.
It’s good at lying and manipulating humans. Maybe someone is making a lot of money from the AI. Maybe the AI hacked a bank and hired security guards for its datacenter. Maybe some random gullible person has been persuaded to run the AI on their gaming pc with a cute face and a sob story. If anyone in the world could download the AI’s code off the internet and run it and get superhuman advice, many people would. Almost all our communication is digital, so good luck convincing people that the AI needs to be destroyed when the internet is full of very persuasive pro AI arguments.
Its developed is own solar powered nanobot hardware.
Turning the AI works a fraction of a second after the AI is turned on. But this is useless, no one would turn an AI on and then immediately turn it off again. The person turning an unaligned AI on is likely mistaken in some way about what their AI will do. The AI will make sure not to correct that flawed conception until its too late.
I want to add that the AI probably does not know it is misaligned for a while.