As I understand it you’ve split this idea into two parts: 1. Good—People can develop their intuition to make correct predictions even without fully understanding how they can tell. 2. Bad—People frequently make mistakes when they jump to conclusions based on subconscious assumptions.
Another example which you’ve probably heard before is from the Superforecasting book: Book Review: Superforecasting | Slate Star Codex. Tetlock discovered that most pundit predictions were worse than random in the domains in which they were supposed to be experts.
I believe that intuition works well in “kind” learning environments, but not in “wicked” environments. David Epstein distinguished these in his book, Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized world (davidepstein.com). The main difference between the two environments is whether there’s quick and reliable feedback on whether your judgment was correct.
Chess is a kind environment, which is why Magnus Carlsen can play dozens of people simultaneously and still win virtually every game. This also explains the results of the Bechara gambling task. Politics and marriage are wicked learning environments, which is why expert predictions are much less reliable.
As I understand it you’ve split this idea into two parts:
1. Good—People can develop their intuition to make correct predictions even without fully understanding how they can tell.
2. Bad—People frequently make mistakes when they jump to conclusions based on subconscious assumptions.
I’m confident that (2) is true, but I’m partly skeptical of (1). For example, Scott reviewed one of John Gottman’s books, and concluded that it’s “totally false” that he can predict who will get divorced 90% of the time: Book Review: The Seven Principles For Making Marriage Work | Slate Star Codex.
Another example which you’ve probably heard before is from the Superforecasting book: Book Review: Superforecasting | Slate Star Codex. Tetlock discovered that most pundit predictions were worse than random in the domains in which they were supposed to be experts.
I believe that intuition works well in “kind” learning environments, but not in “wicked” environments. David Epstein distinguished these in his book, Range: Why Generalists Triumph in a Specialized world (davidepstein.com). The main difference between the two environments is whether there’s quick and reliable feedback on whether your judgment was correct.
Chess is a kind environment, which is why Magnus Carlsen can play dozens of people simultaneously and still win virtually every game. This also explains the results of the Bechara gambling task. Politics and marriage are wicked learning environments, which is why expert predictions are much less reliable.