There is some ambient support for Phil-Tetlock-style forecasting stuff like Metaculus, and some ambient support for prediction markets, definitely. But the vision here tends to be limited, mostly focused on “let’s get better forecasting done on EA relevant questions/topics”, not “scale up prediction markets until they are the primary way that society answers important questions in many fields”.
There isn’t huge effort going into future generations bills from within EA (the most notable post is complaining about them, not advocating them! https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TSZHvG7eGdmXCGhgS/concerns-with-the-wellbeing-of-future-generations-bill-1 ), although a lot of lefty- and climate-oriented EAs like them. But what I meant by that comment is just that EA has interpreted “improving institutional decisionmaking” to mean seeking influence within existing institutions, while I think there should be a second pillar of the cause area devoted to piloting totally new ideas in governance.
As an example of another idea that I think should get more EA attention and funding, Charter Cities have sometimes received an unduly chilly reception on the Forum (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EpaSZWQkAy9apupoD/intervention-report-charter-cities), miscategorized as merely a neartermist economic-growth-boosting intervention, wheras charter city advocates are often most excited about their potential for experimental improvements in governance and leading to more “governance competition” among nations.
It was heartening to see the list of focus areas of the FTX future fund—they seem more interested in institution design and progress-studies-esque ideas than the rest of the EA ecosystem, which I think is great.
Metaculus was created by EAs. Manifold Market was also partly funded by EA money.
What EA money goes currently into “passing weaksauce “future generations” climate bills”?
There is some ambient support for Phil-Tetlock-style forecasting stuff like Metaculus, and some ambient support for prediction markets, definitely. But the vision here tends to be limited, mostly focused on “let’s get better forecasting done on EA relevant questions/topics”, not “scale up prediction markets until they are the primary way that society answers important questions in many fields”.
There isn’t huge effort going into future generations bills from within EA (the most notable post is complaining about them, not advocating them! https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/TSZHvG7eGdmXCGhgS/concerns-with-the-wellbeing-of-future-generations-bill-1 ), although a lot of lefty- and climate-oriented EAs like them. But what I meant by that comment is just that EA has interpreted “improving institutional decisionmaking” to mean seeking influence within existing institutions, while I think there should be a second pillar of the cause area devoted to piloting totally new ideas in governance.
As an example of another idea that I think should get more EA attention and funding, Charter Cities have sometimes received an unduly chilly reception on the Forum (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EpaSZWQkAy9apupoD/intervention-report-charter-cities), miscategorized as merely a neartermist economic-growth-boosting intervention, wheras charter city advocates are often most excited about their potential for experimental improvements in governance and leading to more “governance competition” among nations.
It was heartening to see the list of focus areas of the FTX future fund—they seem more interested in institution design and progress-studies-esque ideas than the rest of the EA ecosystem, which I think is great.