What do you see as a source of potential wagers, coming along daily, where there’s a potential 1000x payout and your probability of a win is between around 0.15% and 1.1%?
There’s two big sources of wagers with small downside and large upside: networking events and buying tools.
I don’t pay enough for serendipitous opportunities to meet people. If I meet the right people people, I think the payout of social serendipity really is 1000× and the probability is between 0.15 and 1.1. And that’s just counting the most extreme wins.b=100 and b=10 payouts come along much more frequently.
I’m too conservative when it comes to buying tools. I’ll usually only buy tools when the tools are very cheap or I at at least a 75% confident I will use them. I treat tools I don’t use as mistakes when I should think of them as wagers. I expect thinking of tools as wagers will also make it easier to throw away the ones I don’t use.
There’s two big sources of wagers with small downside and large upside: networking events and buying tools.
I don’t pay enough for serendipitous opportunities to meet people. If I meet the right people people, I think the payout of social serendipity really is 1000× and the probability is between 0.15 and 1.1. And that’s just counting the most extreme wins.b=100 and b=10 payouts come along much more frequently.
I’m too conservative when it comes to buying tools. I’ll usually only buy tools when the tools are very cheap or I at at least a 75% confident I will use them. I treat tools I don’t use as mistakes when I should think of them as wagers. I expect thinking of tools as wagers will also make it easier to throw away the ones I don’t use.
Update ten months later: I am quick to buy tools and I totally ignore all entrance fees to events if they are less than $50.