enforced norms preventing individuals from making superpathogens.
large scale biomonitoring
can and will rapidly deploy vaccines
will rapidly quarantine based on bio monitoring to prevent spread
might deploy sterilisation measures (EG:UV-C sterilizers in HVAC systems)
There is a tradeoff to be made between level of bio monitoring, speed of air travel, mitigation tech and risk of a pathogen slipping past. Pathogens that operate on 2+day infection-->contagious times should be detectable quickly and might kill 10000 worst case. That’s for a pretty aggressive point in the tradeoff space.
Earth is not well coordinated. Success of some places in keeping out COVID shows what actual competence could accomplish. A coordinated earth won’t see much impact from the worst of natural pathogens much less COVID-19.
Even assuming a 100% lethal long incubation time highly infective pathogen for which no vaccine can be made. Biomonitoring can detect it prior to symptoms, then quarantine happens and 99+% of the planet remains uninfected. Pathogens travel because we let them.
The adversary here is assumed to be nature/evolution. I’m not referring to scenarios where intelligent agents are designing pathogens.
Humans can design vaccines faster than viruses can mutate. A population of well coordinated humans will not be significantly preyed upon by viruses despite viruses being the fastest evolving threat.
Nature is the threat in this scenario as implied by that last bit.
No adversary, or group of adversaries, in the real world exists in isolation. Humans will take advantage of viruses, viruses will take advantage of humans, as in the case of toxoplasmosis gondii.
In other words, all possible threats, are co-determinants to varying degrees, of the real threat faced by actual humans. Even those without intelligent agency.
So this assumption would quickly breakdown outside a fantasy world.
Perhaps for natural viruses. But this has not been tested under a sustained adversary developing synthetic viruses.
Even for the latest strain of COVID there may be possibilities for another 10x in virulence with only a modest decrease in lethality.
Yes, assume no intelligent adversary.
Well coordinated -->
enforced norms preventing individuals from making superpathogens.
large scale biomonitoring
can and will rapidly deploy vaccines
will rapidly quarantine based on bio monitoring to prevent spread
might deploy sterilisation measures (EG:UV-C sterilizers in HVAC systems)
There is a tradeoff to be made between level of bio monitoring, speed of air travel, mitigation tech and risk of a pathogen slipping past. Pathogens that operate on 2+day infection-->contagious times should be detectable quickly and might kill 10000 worst case. That’s for a pretty aggressive point in the tradeoff space.
Earth is not well coordinated. Success of some places in keeping out COVID shows what actual competence could accomplish. A coordinated earth won’t see much impact from the worst of natural pathogens much less COVID-19.
Even assuming a 100% lethal long incubation time highly infective pathogen for which no vaccine can be made. Biomonitoring can detect it prior to symptoms, then quarantine happens and 99+% of the planet remains uninfected. Pathogens travel because we let them.
How could this enforcement be carried out within every nation? Who will be the enforcer(s)?
The adversary here is assumed to be nature/evolution. I’m not referring to scenarios where intelligent agents are designing pathogens.
Nature is the threat in this scenario as implied by that last bit.
No adversary, or group of adversaries, in the real world exists in isolation. Humans will take advantage of viruses, viruses will take advantage of humans, as in the case of toxoplasmosis gondii.
In other words, all possible threats, are co-determinants to varying degrees, of the real threat faced by actual humans. Even those without intelligent agency.
So this assumption would quickly breakdown outside a fantasy world.