Very interesting! Your categorization into black box / clear box / social reputation seems like it’s missing a level, and hence to me your names feel slightly off. I might instead think in terms of:
Clear box: I fact check some of the expert’s claims, and estimate the accuracy of the claims I can’t estimate based on the ones which I can. For example, [Ibn Tufail’s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Tufail) metaphysical claims might be difficult to refute, but his books also reference biological mechanisms which are easier to evaluate (e.g., men can be born from mud.) Similarly, if an expert claims some broad historical thesis, I can compare it to, e.g., Spain in the last centuries to see if it checks out.
Black box: I know the person’s track record, or that the track record is good, but not which claims/accomplishments it’s based on. For example, I know that Renaissance Technologies has a good track record in making money from the stock market and cultivating startups, even if I don’t know how exactly they did it. Or I might know that someone is a super-forecaster without knowing what questions they have predicted to get there.
Proxies box (your clear box): I look at proxies for accuracy/track record. Some can be mechanistic: like skin in the game, alignment, computational power, time. But you can’t look at, say, computational power or alignment directly (yet), so might have to look at correlational proxies for that, like prestigious university affiliations, big car, nice suit, English accent, brings up cogent and interesting points in a conversation, presentation skills, etc..
Deference pointer: I trust other people’s assessment & status signals.
Very interesting! Your categorization into black box / clear box / social reputation seems like it’s missing a level, and hence to me your names feel slightly off. I might instead think in terms of:
Clear box: I fact check some of the expert’s claims, and estimate the accuracy of the claims I can’t estimate based on the ones which I can. For example, [Ibn Tufail’s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Tufail) metaphysical claims might be difficult to refute, but his books also reference biological mechanisms which are easier to evaluate (e.g., men can be born from mud.) Similarly, if an expert claims some broad historical thesis, I can compare it to, e.g., Spain in the last centuries to see if it checks out.
Black box: I know the person’s track record, or that the track record is good, but not which claims/accomplishments it’s based on. For example, I know that Renaissance Technologies has a good track record in making money from the stock market and cultivating startups, even if I don’t know how exactly they did it. Or I might know that someone is a super-forecaster without knowing what questions they have predicted to get there.
Proxies box (your clear box): I look at proxies for accuracy/track record. Some can be mechanistic: like skin in the game, alignment, computational power, time. But you can’t look at, say, computational power or alignment directly (yet), so might have to look at correlational proxies for that, like prestigious university affiliations, big car, nice suit, English accent, brings up cogent and interesting points in a conversation, presentation skills, etc..
Deference pointer: I trust other people’s assessment & status signals.
On 1., see Epistemic Spot Checks, and in particular this comment thread. On 3., see Hanson’s How to pick an X.