For a replication study to get defined well enough to place a bet on the outcome, the scientific community must have decided it’s a sufficiently worthwhile study to do. And at that juncture, it’s hard to see what value in a prediction market on the outcome. Do you have thoughts on whether this is actually a problem for scientific prediction markets, and if so, what could be done about it?
For a replication study to get defined well enough to place a bet on the outcome, the scientific community must have decided it’s a sufficiently worthwhile study to do. And at that juncture, it’s hard to see what value in a prediction market on the outcome. Do you have thoughts on whether this is actually a problem for scientific prediction markets, and if so, what could be done about it?