From the title I was expecting the proposal to go differently.
How about a scheme were original results / papers run on the existing incentives but in order to get more replications we fund a prediction market about it? The question of what the thing we are checking for would be clearer, it is what the orginal paper laid out. If the original paper doesn’t lay out how it would be replicated that is noteworthy in itself. Negative result that does not replicate could be as useful as a positive result that it does replicate.
If you had an effect that sometimes replicates and sometimes not, betting on slightly different replication attempts would draw the attention on which conditions/variables the thing is dependent upon. Also “bought research” that “replicates too blindly” could be of interest to fish out. Oh no, the oil company funded climate paper means that question has become more open and “more research is needed”. Nobody can guess which papers of the dialogue will be left standing, guess we have to hear both sides.
From the title I was expecting the proposal to go differently.
How about a scheme were original results / papers run on the existing incentives but in order to get more replications we fund a prediction market about it? The question of what the thing we are checking for would be clearer, it is what the orginal paper laid out. If the original paper doesn’t lay out how it would be replicated that is noteworthy in itself. Negative result that does not replicate could be as useful as a positive result that it does replicate.
If you had an effect that sometimes replicates and sometimes not, betting on slightly different replication attempts would draw the attention on which conditions/variables the thing is dependent upon. Also “bought research” that “replicates too blindly” could be of interest to fish out. Oh no, the oil company funded climate paper means that question has become more open and “more research is needed”. Nobody can guess which papers of the dialogue will be left standing, guess we have to hear both sides.