If the arguments for orthodoxy are stronger, then you dismiss contrarians entirely: they are obviously wrong! So do other people, so you don’t get to hear about them to begin with. And so do most potential contrarians themselves.
So by selection effect, we mostly see contrarian arguments which at least appear to be better than the orthodoxy.
If the arguments for orthodoxy are stronger, then you dismiss contrarians entirely: they are obviously wrong! So do other people, so you don’t get to hear about them to begin with. And so do most potential contrarians themselves.
So by selection effect, we mostly see contrarian arguments which at least appear to be better than the orthodoxy.