Even with the most non-intrusive and fair government imaginable, if lots of information about your life is easily available online, it means that a single stupid mistake in life that would earlier have only mild consequences can ruin your reputation forever and render you permanently unemployable and shunned socially.
I’ve heard this opinion expressed frequently, but it always seems to kind of contradict itself. If there’s lots of information available about everyone, and all kinds of stupid mistakes will easily become permanently recorded...
...then wouldn’t that lead to just about everyone’s reputation being ruined in the eyes of everyone? But that doesn’t make any sense—if almost everyone’s going to have some stupid mistakes of theirs caught permanently on file, then all that will happen is that you’ll find out you’re not the only one who has made stupid mistakes. Big deal.
In fact, this to me seems potentially preferrable than our current society. Right now, people’s past mistakes get lost in the past. As a result, we construct an unrealistic image where most people seem far more perfect than they actually are. Some past mistake coming out might ruin someone’s reputation, and people who have made perfectly normal and reasonable mistakes will feel a lot more guilty about it than would be warranted. If the mistakes everyone had made were available, then we wouldn’t have these unrealistic unconscious conceptions of how perfect people must be. Society might be far healthier as a result.
But that doesn’t make any sense—if almost everyone’s going to have some stupid mistakes of theirs caught permanently on file, then all that will happen is that you’ll find out you’re not the only one who has made stupid mistakes.
There are at least three important problems with this view:
First, this is only one possible equilibrium. Another possibility is a society where everyone is extremely cautious to the point of paranoia, so that very few people ever commit a faux pas of any sort—and although most people would like things to be more relaxed, they’re faced with a problem of collective action. I don’t think this is at all unrealistic—people living under repression quickly develop the instinct to watch their mouth and behavior obsessively.
Second, even under the most optimistic “good” equilibrium, this argument applies only to those behaviors and opinions that are actually widespread. Those whose unconventional opinions and preferences are in a small minority, let alone lone-wolf contrarians, will have to censor themselves 24⁄7 or suffer very bad consequences.
Third, many things people dare say or do only in private are not dangerous because of laws or widespread social norms, but because of the local and private relations of power and status in which they are entangled. You need look no further than the workplace: if your bosses can examine all the details of your life to determine how docile, obedient, and conformist you are, then clearly, having such traits 24⁄7 is going to become necessary to prosper economically (except for the minority of self-employed folks, of course). Not to mention what happens if you wish to criticize your employers, even in your own free time! (Again, there’s a collective action problem of sorts here: if everyone were mouthing off against their bosses and couldn’t help but do it, it would lead to a “good” equilibrium, but the obedient and docile will outcompete the rest, making such traits more valuable and desirable.)
Second, even under the most optimistic “good” equilibrium, this argument applies only to those behaviors and opinions that are actually widespread. Those whose unconventional opinions and preferences are in a small minority, let alone lone-wolf contrarians, will have to censor themselves 24⁄7 or suffer very bad consequences.
I think it can apply even to minority opinions, because the minority opinions add up. Even if only 1% of the population has a given minority opinion, significantly more than 1% of the population is probably going to have at least one minority opinion about something. If people choose to be super-intolerant of 1% opinions, and if 70% of the population has at least one 1% opinion, then it’s not 1% of the population that people will have to be super-intolerant of, but 70% of the population.
Or if 70% seems too extreme a possibility, try 30%. The point is that the sum total of small minorities adds up to a total that is less small, and this total will determine what happens. Take the extreme case: suppose the total adds up to 100%, so that 100% of the population holds at least one extreme-minority opinion. Can a person afford to ostracize close to 100% of the population (consisting of everybody who has at least one extreme-minority opinion that he does not share)? I think not. Therefore he will have to learn to be much more tolerant of extreme-minority opinions.
While that is only the extreme case, and 30% is not 100%, I think the point is made, that the accumulated total of all people who have minority opinions matters, and not merely the total for each minority opinion.
It seems unlikely that people would think that way. Taking myself as an example, I favor an extensive reworking of the powers, internal organization, and mode of election of the U.S. House of Representatives. I know that I’m the only person in the world who favors my program, because I invented it and haven’t yet described it completely. I’ve described parts of it in online venues, each of which has a rather narrow, specialist audience, so there might possibly be two or three people out there who agree with me on a major portion of it, but certainly no one who agrees on the whole. That makes me an extreme minority.
There are plenty of extreme minorities I feel no sympathy for at all. Frankly, I think moon-hoax theorists should be shunned.
You are not facing the situation I’m describing, because it hasn’t happened yet. It is a future speculation that would occur in a sufficiently transparent society. As long as you are unaware of most people’s odd opinions, you can afford to shun the tiny minority of odd thinkers whose odd thoughts you are aware of, because in doing so you are only isolating yourself socially from that tiny minority, which is no skin off your nose. However, in a sufficiently transparent society you may, hypothetically, discover that 99% of everyone has at least one opinion which (previously) you were ready to shun a person for. In that hypothetical case, if you continue your policy of shunning those people, you will find yourself socially isolated to a degree that a homeless guy living under a bridge might feel sorry for. In that hypothetical situation, then, you may find yourself with no choice but to relax your standards about whether to shun people with odd opinions.
On second thought, in a sense it has happened. I happen to live in that world now, because I happen to think that pretty much everybody has views about as batty is moon-hoax theorists. In reaction to finding myself in this situation, I am not inclined to shun people who espouse moon-hoax-theory-level idiocy, because I would rather have at least one or two friends.
You’re assuming that because someone has made mistakes themselves they will judge others less harshly. That is not necessarily the case.
Besides, most people make indeed mistakes but not the same mistakes. If you’re boss is a teetotaler and you are a careful driver, you are not going to think well of each other if you get drunk and your boss gets into an car accident.
Even I have the same problem. I tend to procrastinate so if a coworker is past his deadline I don’t really care. But I dislike sloppy thinking and try to eradicate it in myself so it really gets on my nerves if someones goes all irrational on me. (Although I seem to be getting better as I get older in accepting that most people don’t think like me.)
You’re assuming that because someone has made mistakes themselves they will judge others less harshly.
Actually, I don’t think that’s the only or most important factor. People who learn about the skeletons in your closet will compare you, not only to themselves, but to other people. If everyone has skeletons in their closet and everyone knows about them, then your prospective employer Bob (say) will be comparing the skeletons in your closet not only to the skeletons in his own closet, but more importantly to the skeletons in the closets of the other people who are competing with you for the same job.
As for people not making equal mistakes, to put it in simple binary terms merely for the purpose of making the point, divide people into “major offenders” and “minor offenders” and suppose major offenders are all equally major and minor all equally minor. If major offenders outnumber minor offenders, then being a major offender is not such a big deal since you’re part of the majority. But if minor offenders outnumber major offenders, then only a minority of people will be major offenders and therefore only a minority will have to worry about a transparent society. So either way, the transparent society is not that big a thing to fear for the average person. It’s a self-limiting danger. The more probable it is that the average person will be revealed to have Pervert Type A, the greater the fraction of people who will be revealed to be Pervert Type A, and therefore the harder it will be for other people to ostracize them, since to do so would reduce the size of their own social network.
...then wouldn’t that lead to just about everyone’s reputation being ruined in the eyes of everyone? But that doesn’t make any sense—if almost everyone’s going to have some stupid mistakes of theirs caught permanently on file, then all that will happen is that you’ll find out you’re not the only one who has made stupid mistakes. Big deal.
One part of how that plays out depends on whether there’s a group that can enforce “it’s different when we do it.”
I’ve heard this opinion expressed frequently, but it always seems to kind of contradict itself. If there’s lots of information available about everyone, and all kinds of stupid mistakes will easily become permanently recorded...
...then wouldn’t that lead to just about everyone’s reputation being ruined in the eyes of everyone? But that doesn’t make any sense—if almost everyone’s going to have some stupid mistakes of theirs caught permanently on file, then all that will happen is that you’ll find out you’re not the only one who has made stupid mistakes. Big deal.
In fact, this to me seems potentially preferrable than our current society. Right now, people’s past mistakes get lost in the past. As a result, we construct an unrealistic image where most people seem far more perfect than they actually are. Some past mistake coming out might ruin someone’s reputation, and people who have made perfectly normal and reasonable mistakes will feel a lot more guilty about it than would be warranted. If the mistakes everyone had made were available, then we wouldn’t have these unrealistic unconscious conceptions of how perfect people must be. Society might be far healthier as a result.
Kaj_Sotala:
There are at least three important problems with this view:
First, this is only one possible equilibrium. Another possibility is a society where everyone is extremely cautious to the point of paranoia, so that very few people ever commit a faux pas of any sort—and although most people would like things to be more relaxed, they’re faced with a problem of collective action. I don’t think this is at all unrealistic—people living under repression quickly develop the instinct to watch their mouth and behavior obsessively.
Second, even under the most optimistic “good” equilibrium, this argument applies only to those behaviors and opinions that are actually widespread. Those whose unconventional opinions and preferences are in a small minority, let alone lone-wolf contrarians, will have to censor themselves 24⁄7 or suffer very bad consequences.
Third, many things people dare say or do only in private are not dangerous because of laws or widespread social norms, but because of the local and private relations of power and status in which they are entangled. You need look no further than the workplace: if your bosses can examine all the details of your life to determine how docile, obedient, and conformist you are, then clearly, having such traits 24⁄7 is going to become necessary to prosper economically (except for the minority of self-employed folks, of course). Not to mention what happens if you wish to criticize your employers, even in your own free time! (Again, there’s a collective action problem of sorts here: if everyone were mouthing off against their bosses and couldn’t help but do it, it would lead to a “good” equilibrium, but the obedient and docile will outcompete the rest, making such traits more valuable and desirable.)
I think it can apply even to minority opinions, because the minority opinions add up. Even if only 1% of the population has a given minority opinion, significantly more than 1% of the population is probably going to have at least one minority opinion about something. If people choose to be super-intolerant of 1% opinions, and if 70% of the population has at least one 1% opinion, then it’s not 1% of the population that people will have to be super-intolerant of, but 70% of the population.
Or if 70% seems too extreme a possibility, try 30%. The point is that the sum total of small minorities adds up to a total that is less small, and this total will determine what happens. Take the extreme case: suppose the total adds up to 100%, so that 100% of the population holds at least one extreme-minority opinion. Can a person afford to ostracize close to 100% of the population (consisting of everybody who has at least one extreme-minority opinion that he does not share)? I think not. Therefore he will have to learn to be much more tolerant of extreme-minority opinions.
While that is only the extreme case, and 30% is not 100%, I think the point is made, that the accumulated total of all people who have minority opinions matters, and not merely the total for each minority opinion.
It seems unlikely that people would think that way. Taking myself as an example, I favor an extensive reworking of the powers, internal organization, and mode of election of the U.S. House of Representatives. I know that I’m the only person in the world who favors my program, because I invented it and haven’t yet described it completely. I’ve described parts of it in online venues, each of which has a rather narrow, specialist audience, so there might possibly be two or three people out there who agree with me on a major portion of it, but certainly no one who agrees on the whole. That makes me an extreme minority.
There are plenty of extreme minorities I feel no sympathy for at all. Frankly, I think moon-hoax theorists should be shunned.
You are not facing the situation I’m describing, because it hasn’t happened yet. It is a future speculation that would occur in a sufficiently transparent society. As long as you are unaware of most people’s odd opinions, you can afford to shun the tiny minority of odd thinkers whose odd thoughts you are aware of, because in doing so you are only isolating yourself socially from that tiny minority, which is no skin off your nose. However, in a sufficiently transparent society you may, hypothetically, discover that 99% of everyone has at least one opinion which (previously) you were ready to shun a person for. In that hypothetical case, if you continue your policy of shunning those people, you will find yourself socially isolated to a degree that a homeless guy living under a bridge might feel sorry for. In that hypothetical situation, then, you may find yourself with no choice but to relax your standards about whether to shun people with odd opinions.
On second thought, in a sense it has happened. I happen to live in that world now, because I happen to think that pretty much everybody has views about as batty is moon-hoax theorists. In reaction to finding myself in this situation, I am not inclined to shun people who espouse moon-hoax-theory-level idiocy, because I would rather have at least one or two friends.
You’re assuming that because someone has made mistakes themselves they will judge others less harshly. That is not necessarily the case.
Besides, most people make indeed mistakes but not the same mistakes. If you’re boss is a teetotaler and you are a careful driver, you are not going to think well of each other if you get drunk and your boss gets into an car accident.
Even I have the same problem. I tend to procrastinate so if a coworker is past his deadline I don’t really care. But I dislike sloppy thinking and try to eradicate it in myself so it really gets on my nerves if someones goes all irrational on me. (Although I seem to be getting better as I get older in accepting that most people don’t think like me.)
Actually, I don’t think that’s the only or most important factor. People who learn about the skeletons in your closet will compare you, not only to themselves, but to other people. If everyone has skeletons in their closet and everyone knows about them, then your prospective employer Bob (say) will be comparing the skeletons in your closet not only to the skeletons in his own closet, but more importantly to the skeletons in the closets of the other people who are competing with you for the same job.
As for people not making equal mistakes, to put it in simple binary terms merely for the purpose of making the point, divide people into “major offenders” and “minor offenders” and suppose major offenders are all equally major and minor all equally minor. If major offenders outnumber minor offenders, then being a major offender is not such a big deal since you’re part of the majority. But if minor offenders outnumber major offenders, then only a minority of people will be major offenders and therefore only a minority will have to worry about a transparent society. So either way, the transparent society is not that big a thing to fear for the average person. It’s a self-limiting danger. The more probable it is that the average person will be revealed to have Pervert Type A, the greater the fraction of people who will be revealed to be Pervert Type A, and therefore the harder it will be for other people to ostracize them, since to do so would reduce the size of their own social network.
Good points. Just read the whole conversation between you and Vladimir_M and I agree it could go both ways.
One part of how that plays out depends on whether there’s a group that can enforce “it’s different when we do it.”