The prosecutor’s fallacy seems to be in play here—Pr(rationalist | lied to as a child) is not necesarily equal to Pr(lied to as a child | rationalist). (And that’s not even getting into the swamp of causality...)
The prosecutor’s fallacy seems to be in play here—Pr(rationalist | lied to as a child) is not necesarily equal to Pr(lied to as a child | rationalist). (And that’s not even getting into the swamp of causality...)