But North Korea has more in common with South Korea than it has in common with any other country. And South Korea is probably much closer to North Korea than any other country is to North Korea. Anyway, this is all nitpicking, because ArisKatsaris’ main point remains: South Korean leaders don’t refrain from harem-kidnapping based on national character, but based on the negative incentives they face.
I’m pretty sure that if you had asked me what “national character” means before this thread, I would definitely have included “personality cult around a wacky dictator”!
For the reasons laid out in the quote that started this discussion, I’m not sure “national character” refers to anything at all.
It’s either all applause lights or what behaviorists might call explanatory fiction (i.e. it describes certain behavior, but does not actually explain anything).
it describes certain behavior, but does not actually explain anything
That’s not so much of a problem, provided 1) it can help you make predictions, and 2) it’s not screened off by better models (which would necessarily include those that actually do explain, provided they are simple enough to be practically applied).
A: Why is Charlie doing badly in school? B: He’s lazy. A: What makes you say that? B: He’s always daydreaming. A: So let’s B: Nah, it wouldn’t work. Charlie is lazy.
So, saying that the British don’t use assassination as a foreign policy tool based on their “national character” is really just saying the British don’t assassinate because they don’t assassinate.
Notice how saying “The British won’t assassinate in the future because they haven’t in the past” doesn’t really invoke “national character” at all.
If “[h]e’s always daydreaming” is in fact the only evidence that Charlie is lazy, then the Lazy Charlie model is poor at making predictions new situations. If it was only the most salient, and B has much experience with Charlie in other situations that leads to the same conclusion, “Charlie is lazy” may be a better model, and a daydreaming specific intervention would be of less value.
“The British won’t assassinate because they haven’t in the past” does not invoke “national character” but it is also discarding portions of the theory that might be put to predictive use. “The British won’t assassinate because they haven’t in the past, they have spoken publicly against doing so, and they seem to value the appearance of consistency”, for instance—if you have evidence for each of those, you should be adjusting your belief that the British were behind the plot downward somewhat; “that they haven’t in the past” is not the only kind of evidence that applies. Models of that type might, in a handwavy casual conversation (although I’m not sure Wittgenstein ever had casual conversations) be pointed at with the phrase “national character” without a specific model necessarily being described in detail.
It could easily be that national character was used as a shorthand, which would make Wittgenstein’s response look bad because holding conversation to a higher standard of precision without warning is quite rude.
But if it’s a shorthand, then it doesn’t actually explain anything. And the risk is that Malcolm thought his statement was an explanation, not a shorthand. Your experience may be different, but most of the encounters I’ve had with the phrase “national character” are intended as explanations. Or in-group identification signals intended to avoid further questions.. But maybe the idiom meant something different in 1940s England.
Different something, sure.
But North Korea has more in common with South Korea than it has in common with any other country. And South Korea is probably much closer to North Korea than any other country is to North Korea. Anyway, this is all nitpicking, because ArisKatsaris’ main point remains: South Korean leaders don’t refrain from harem-kidnapping based on national character, but based on the negative incentives they face.
I’m pretty sure that if you had asked me what “national character” means before this thread, I would definitely have included “personality cult around a wacky dictator”!
For the reasons laid out in the quote that started this discussion, I’m not sure “national character” refers to anything at all.
It’s either all applause lights or what behaviorists might call explanatory fiction (i.e. it describes certain behavior, but does not actually explain anything).
That’s not so much of a problem, provided 1) it can help you make predictions, and 2) it’s not screened off by better models (which would necessarily include those that actually do explain, provided they are simple enough to be practically applied).
An explanatory fiction in the wild:
A: Why is Charlie doing badly in school?
B: He’s lazy.
A: What makes you say that?
B: He’s always daydreaming.
A: So let’s
B: Nah, it wouldn’t work. Charlie is lazy.
So, saying that the British don’t use assassination as a foreign policy tool based on their “national character” is really just saying the British don’t assassinate because they don’t assassinate.
Notice how saying “The British won’t assassinate in the future because they haven’t in the past” doesn’t really invoke “national character” at all.
If “[h]e’s always daydreaming” is in fact the only evidence that Charlie is lazy, then the Lazy Charlie model is poor at making predictions new situations. If it was only the most salient, and B has much experience with Charlie in other situations that leads to the same conclusion, “Charlie is lazy” may be a better model, and a daydreaming specific intervention would be of less value.
“The British won’t assassinate because they haven’t in the past” does not invoke “national character” but it is also discarding portions of the theory that might be put to predictive use. “The British won’t assassinate because they haven’t in the past, they have spoken publicly against doing so, and they seem to value the appearance of consistency”, for instance—if you have evidence for each of those, you should be adjusting your belief that the British were behind the plot downward somewhat; “that they haven’t in the past” is not the only kind of evidence that applies. Models of that type might, in a handwavy casual conversation (although I’m not sure Wittgenstein ever had casual conversations) be pointed at with the phrase “national character” without a specific model necessarily being described in detail.
It could easily be that national character was used as a shorthand, which would make Wittgenstein’s response look bad because holding conversation to a higher standard of precision without warning is quite rude.
But if it’s a shorthand, then it doesn’t actually explain anything. And the risk is that Malcolm thought his statement was an explanation, not a shorthand. Your experience may be different, but most of the encounters I’ve had with the phrase “national character” are intended as explanations. Or in-group identification signals intended to avoid further questions.. But maybe the idiom meant something different in 1940s England.