The existence of historical examples where people in powerful organizations failed to realize important things is not evidence that it is the norm or that it can be counted on with strong confidence.
Yes, it is. How could examples of X not be evidence that the “norm is X”? It may not be sufficiently strong evidence, but if this one example is not sufficiently damning, there are certainlyplentymore.
Yes, of course it is weak evidence. But I can come up with a dozen examples off the top of my head where powerful organizations did realize important things, so you’re examples are very weak evidence that this behavior is the norm. So weak that it can be regarded as negligible.
Important things that weren’t recognized by the wider populace as important things? Do you have citations? Even for much more mundane things, governments routinely fail to either notice them, or to act once they have noticed. Eg., Chamberlain didn’t notice that Hitler wanted total control of Europe, even though he said so in his publicly-available book Mein Kampf. Stalin didn’t notice that Hitler was about to invade, even though he had numerous warnings from his subordinates.
The existence of historical examples where people in powerful organizations failed to realize important things is not evidence that it is the norm or that it can be counted on with strong confidence.
Yes, it is. How could examples of X not be evidence that the “norm is X”? It may not be sufficiently strong evidence, but if this one example is not sufficiently damning, there are certainly plenty more.
Yes, of course it is weak evidence. But I can come up with a dozen examples off the top of my head where powerful organizations did realize important things, so you’re examples are very weak evidence that this behavior is the norm. So weak that it can be regarded as negligible.
Important things that weren’t recognized by the wider populace as important things? Do you have citations? Even for much more mundane things, governments routinely fail to either notice them, or to act once they have noticed. Eg., Chamberlain didn’t notice that Hitler wanted total control of Europe, even though he said so in his publicly-available book Mein Kampf. Stalin didn’t notice that Hitler was about to invade, even though he had numerous warnings from his subordinates.