Those 3 new silo fields are the most visible but I’d guess China is expanding the mobile arm of its land-based DF-41 force (TELs) a similar amount. You just don’t see that on satellite images. The infrastructure enabling Launch on Warning is also being implemented which will make those silos much more survivable, though this also of course greatly increases the risk of accidental nuclear war. I’d argue that those silo fields are destabilizing, especially if China decides to deploy the majority of their land-based force that way, because even with a Launch on Warning posture there will be at least some use-it-or-lose-it pressure during a conflict, while the mobile and sea-based deterrent are stabilizing because they for the most part lack that issue. Similarly, hypersonic weapons including the much-discussed recent tests are stabilizing because they shatter US delusions of any protection offered by its BMD system, now and future. There are few practical differences with regular ICBM warheads besides the ability to better penetrate defences: they’re in fact slower.
The issue with China’s current SSBN (the Type 094) is twofold: more noisy and the SLBM they carry has relatively low range, so they have to venture further into the Pacific to hit much of the US mainland, both of which render it more vulnerable to detection. The upcoming 096 solves this, both being quieter and allowing it to fire from a protected “bastion” in Chinese coastal waters.
I’m willing to bet the Pentagon’s projection that China will have 700 warheads by 2027 and 1000 by 2030 will be revised upward again next year, and some in the US military seem to agree with me. In light of this I’d strongly suggest those in the community working on nuclear risks (e.g. Rethink) shift their main focus from the US-Russia scenario to China, especially with how hard everyone in the West is dying to go to war with China these days haha.
Those 3 new silo fields are the most visible but I’d guess China is expanding the mobile arm of its land-based DF-41 force (TELs) a similar amount. You just don’t see that on satellite images. The infrastructure enabling Launch on Warning is also being implemented which will make those silos much more survivable, though this also of course greatly increases the risk of accidental nuclear war. I’d argue that those silo fields are destabilizing, especially if China decides to deploy the majority of their land-based force that way, because even with a Launch on Warning posture there will be at least some use-it-or-lose-it pressure during a conflict, while the mobile and sea-based deterrent are stabilizing because they for the most part lack that issue. Similarly, hypersonic weapons including the much-discussed recent tests are stabilizing because they shatter US delusions of any protection offered by its BMD system, now and future. There are few practical differences with regular ICBM warheads besides the ability to better penetrate defences: they’re in fact slower.
The issue with China’s current SSBN (the Type 094) is twofold: more noisy and the SLBM they carry has relatively low range, so they have to venture further into the Pacific to hit much of the US mainland, both of which render it more vulnerable to detection. The upcoming 096 solves this, both being quieter and allowing it to fire from a protected “bastion” in Chinese coastal waters.
I’m willing to bet the Pentagon’s projection that China will have 700 warheads by 2027 and 1000 by 2030 will be revised upward again next year, and some in the US military seem to agree with me. In light of this I’d strongly suggest those in the community working on nuclear risks (e.g. Rethink) shift their main focus from the US-Russia scenario to China, especially with how hard everyone in the West is dying to go to war with China these days haha.