I don’t see possible next steps for simultaneous disclosure of superpower military R&D from all sides.
This might not be possible until the danger of arms-races in agentic AI has become more obvious. I’m not familiar enough with the nuclear situation to say whether it’s feasible today, but it probably will be at some point in the near future.
It seems probable to me that monitoring has, over the past 40 years, become a lot cheaper and more feasible than our geopolitical institutions recognize.
Increases in mutual transparency may have to come in train with assurances that the balance of power will be preserved in light of whatever’s discovered. Geopolitical pluralism may turn out to depend on mutual uncertainty about who would win a war. With increases in transparency, there’s a risk that this veil falls away, which is good for the victor, but so terrible for everyone else, that the veil must not be threatened without such assurances.
This might not be possible until the danger of arms-races in agentic AI has become more obvious. I’m not familiar enough with the nuclear situation to say whether it’s feasible today, but it probably will be at some point in the near future.
It seems probable to me that monitoring has, over the past 40 years, become a lot cheaper and more feasible than our geopolitical institutions recognize.
Increases in mutual transparency may have to come in train with assurances that the balance of power will be preserved in light of whatever’s discovered. Geopolitical pluralism may turn out to depend on mutual uncertainty about who would win a war. With increases in transparency, there’s a risk that this veil falls away, which is good for the victor, but so terrible for everyone else, that the veil must not be threatened without such assurances.
In recent news: China rejects nuclear talks with the U.S. as it looks to strengthen its own arsenal
There’s currently that war going on in Ukraine.