In most cases I think the probability would go up, but it depends on what other information you have, especially information about the stability of the PM’s government and how transitions of power take place in that country.
The main reason for the probability to go up is that the announcement provides evidence that the PM has a weak hold on power. If he’s announcing now that he’ll be resigning soon, then there’s a decent chance that the opposition is capable of driving him out of office at any time.
However, it’s possible that you already knew how weak a hold the PM had on his job. And it may also be the case that transitions of power tend to happen in an orderly way in this country, and that the PM’s announcement initiates the orderly procedure. So now that an election has been announced, they’re very likely follow through and hold the election as planned. In that case, you might adjust the probability downward.
In most cases I think the probability would go up, but it depends on what other information you have, especially information about the stability of the PM’s government and how transitions of power take place in that country.
The main reason for the probability to go up is that the announcement provides evidence that the PM has a weak hold on power. If he’s announcing now that he’ll be resigning soon, then there’s a decent chance that the opposition is capable of driving him out of office at any time.
However, it’s possible that you already knew how weak a hold the PM had on his job. And it may also be the case that transitions of power tend to happen in an orderly way in this country, and that the PM’s announcement initiates the orderly procedure. So now that an election has been announced, they’re very likely follow through and hold the election as planned. In that case, you might adjust the probability downward.