I’d say that if he plans on holding the vote in March, he’ll probably resign some time around April. If he resigned in December, that would leave several months with no Prime Minister.
I’d guess that March would be chosen because doing it any faster would cause too many administrative problems. His opponents wouldn’t push for doing it faster. His problems aren’t going to help them, and he’s going to be resistant to it, so why bother? That wouldn’t make the probability go down that much if you already understood how long it would tend to take, since you’d have known he’d have to announce it beforehand, but I guess if you didn’t know that, the probability might go down because you just found out it takes longer than a month.
I’d say that if he plans on holding the vote in March, he’ll probably resign some time around April. If he resigned in December, that would leave several months with no Prime Minister.
I’d guess that March would be chosen because doing it any faster would cause too many administrative problems. His opponents wouldn’t push for doing it faster. His problems aren’t going to help them, and he’s going to be resistant to it, so why bother? That wouldn’t make the probability go down that much if you already understood how long it would tend to take, since you’d have known he’d have to announce it beforehand, but I guess if you didn’t know that, the probability might go down because you just found out it takes longer than a month.