Ok, sure. Maybe Bayesianism is much more broadly applicable than it seems. And maybe there are fewer fundamental breakthroughs still needed for a sufficient RSI-AI theory than it seems. And maybe the fundamentals could be elaborated into a full framework more easily than it seems. And maybe such a framework could be implemented into computer programming more easily than it seems. And maybe the computing power required to execute the computer program at non-glacial speeds is less than it seems. And maybe the efficiency of the program can be automatically increased more than seems reasonable. And maybe “self improvement” can progress further into the unknown than seems reasonably to guess. And maybe out there in the undiscovered territory there are ways of reasoning about and subsequently controlling matter that are more effective than seems likely, and maybe as these things are revealed we will be too stupid to recognize them.
Maybe.
To make most people not roll their eyes at the prospect, though, they’ll have to be shown something more concrete than a “Maybe AI is like a nuclear reaction” metaphor.
Ok, sure. Maybe Bayesianism is much more broadly applicable than it seems. And maybe there are fewer fundamental breakthroughs still needed for a sufficient RSI-AI theory than it seems. And maybe the fundamentals could be elaborated into a full framework more easily than it seems. And maybe such a framework could be implemented into computer programming more easily than it seems. And maybe the computing power required to execute the computer program at non-glacial speeds is less than it seems. And maybe the efficiency of the program can be automatically increased more than seems reasonable. And maybe “self improvement” can progress further into the unknown than seems reasonably to guess. And maybe out there in the undiscovered territory there are ways of reasoning about and subsequently controlling matter that are more effective than seems likely, and maybe as these things are revealed we will be too stupid to recognize them.
Maybe.
To make most people not roll their eyes at the prospect, though, they’ll have to be shown something more concrete than a “Maybe AI is like a nuclear reaction” metaphor.