Tim, what seems obvious to me is that the uncertainty bars on this topic seem to be large, even with the best takes of experts on it. Incidentally, a question like this (and various subsidiary questions pegged to incremental progress in both AGI and brain modeling) seems to me to be well-suited to prediction markets. What’ll come first: a complete, functional model of a mouse brain, or a chatbot that can consistently pass a version of the Turing Test administered by a median competent 2008 era 8 year old over the course of 1 hour. Will either arrive in the next 20 years? It seems to me that the expert consensus “we don’t know”. It’s frustrating to me how reported knowledge is warped by expressed overconfidence in particular predictions. It seems to me folks doing so are engaging in status/heirarchy plays. I think they should be socially punished, rather than rewarded, by the rest of us when they misleadingly express confidence in a prediction rather than give us their best estimates and models of apparent reality.
Tim, what seems obvious to me is that the uncertainty bars on this topic seem to be large, even with the best takes of experts on it. Incidentally, a question like this (and various subsidiary questions pegged to incremental progress in both AGI and brain modeling) seems to me to be well-suited to prediction markets. What’ll come first: a complete, functional model of a mouse brain, or a chatbot that can consistently pass a version of the Turing Test administered by a median competent 2008 era 8 year old over the course of 1 hour. Will either arrive in the next 20 years? It seems to me that the expert consensus “we don’t know”. It’s frustrating to me how reported knowledge is warped by expressed overconfidence in particular predictions. It seems to me folks doing so are engaging in status/heirarchy plays. I think they should be socially punished, rather than rewarded, by the rest of us when they misleadingly express confidence in a prediction rather than give us their best estimates and models of apparent reality.