Good post, but why the note for the impulsive or poorly disciplined? The reasons I can think of apply to everybody, just more so for more impulsive or less disciplined people. Namely, the planning fallacy, and forgetting to do the analysis (or tossing the old data).
I would just say to take the outside view when evaluating how likely it is that an experiment is harmful, and to establish criteria beforehand for deciding a measure of success or failure for the experiment, including a time at which you will do the evaluation. That applies to everybody.
I don’t want the content of this post to serve as a rationalization for people who don’t introspect or formulate and stick to plans enough.
ETA: I rephrased the note so that it depends not only on the person, but the domain of application: someone can be disciplined in one area and not another. I don’t know if you meant to draw my attention to that, but you did cause me to think about it, so thanks!
I hadn’t thought of it that way, but it satisfies what produced my concern! Mostly for my own sake, not any request of you, here’s an expanded take on your rephrasing:
You can’t change a habit if it’s not really a habit, and you can’t evaluate alternatives if you haven’t evaluated the default. Don’t apply this post’s advice if either condition applies to habits in a domain, or if they are very difficult for you to reapply.
Good post, but why the note for the impulsive or poorly disciplined? The reasons I can think of apply to everybody, just more so for more impulsive or less disciplined people. Namely, the planning fallacy, and forgetting to do the analysis (or tossing the old data).
I would just say to take the outside view when evaluating how likely it is that an experiment is harmful, and to establish criteria beforehand for deciding a measure of success or failure for the experiment, including a time at which you will do the evaluation. That applies to everybody.
I don’t want the content of this post to serve as a rationalization for people who don’t introspect or formulate and stick to plans enough.
ETA: I rephrased the note so that it depends not only on the person, but the domain of application: someone can be disciplined in one area and not another. I don’t know if you meant to draw my attention to that, but you did cause me to think about it, so thanks!
I hadn’t thought of it that way, but it satisfies what produced my concern! Mostly for my own sake, not any request of you, here’s an expanded take on your rephrasing:
You can’t change a habit if it’s not really a habit, and you can’t evaluate alternatives if you haven’t evaluated the default. Don’t apply this post’s advice if either condition applies to habits in a domain, or if they are very difficult for you to reapply.