The conclusion is that the effects of progress are small compared with anything that has an appreciable effect on the future (for someone with aggregative, time-insensitive values). If we break down an action as the sum of two changes—one parallel to progress, one orthogonal to it—the effects of the orthogonal part are typically going to be much larger than the effects of the parallel part.
Originally I ended with a discussion of x-risk reduction, but it became unwieldy and I didn’t want to put time in. Perhaps I should end with a link to some discussion of future-shaping elsewhere.
It seems like you’re drawing the same conclusion as them but perhaps through a new argument, but it’s confusing that you don’t cite them. It’s also unclear to me whether the division of changes into V1, V2, V3 in that post is a useful one. I think the classification you gave in a later post makes a lot more sense (aside from the missing “philosophical progress” which you’ve since added).
The conclusion is that the effects of progress are small compared with anything that has an appreciable effect on the future (for someone with aggregative, time-insensitive values). If we break down an action as the sum of two changes—one parallel to progress, one orthogonal to it—the effects of the orthogonal part are typically going to be much larger than the effects of the parallel part.
Originally I ended with a discussion of x-risk reduction, but it became unwieldy and I didn’t want to put time in. Perhaps I should end with a link to some discussion of future-shaping elsewhere.
Maybe it would help if you cited Nick Bostrom’s differential technological development and Luke Muehlhauser and Anna Salamon’s differential intellectual progress explained how your idea is related to them?
It seems like you’re drawing the same conclusion as them but perhaps through a new argument, but it’s confusing that you don’t cite them. It’s also unclear to me whether the division of changes into V1, V2, V3 in that post is a useful one. I think the classification you gave in a later post makes a lot more sense (aside from the missing “philosophical progress” which you’ve since added).