Nonetheless, the piece exhibited some patterns that gave me a pretty strong allergic reaction. It made or implied claims like: * a small circle of the smartest people believe this * i will give you a view into this small elite group who are the only who are situationally aware * the inner circle longed tsmc way before you * if you believe me; you can get 100x richer—there’s still alpha, you can still be early * This geopolitical outcome is “inevitable” (sic!) * in the future the coolest and most elite group will work on The Project. “see you in the desert” (sic) * Etc.
These are not just vibes—they are all empirical claims (except the last maybe). If you think they are wrong, you should say so and explain why. It’s not epistemically poor to say these things if they’re actually true.
It’s not epistemically poor to say these things if they’re actually true.
Invalid.
Compare:
A: “So I had some questions about your finances, it seems your trading desk and exchange operate sort of closely together? There were some things that confused me...”
B: “our team is 20 insanely smart engineers”
A: “right, but i had a concern that i thought perhaps—”
B: “if you join us and succeed you’ll be a multi millionaire”
A: ”...okay, but what if there’s a sudden downturn—”
(crossposted to the EA Forum)
These are not just vibes—they are all empirical claims (except the last maybe). If you think they are wrong, you should say so and explain why. It’s not epistemically poor to say these things if they’re actually true.
Invalid.
Compare:
A: “So I had some questions about your finances, it seems your trading desk and exchange operate sort of closely together? There were some things that confused me...”
B: “our team is 20 insanely smart engineers”
A: “right, but i had a concern that i thought perhaps—”
B: “if you join us and succeed you’ll be a multi millionaire”
A: ”...okay, but what if there’s a sudden downturn—”
B: “bull market is inevitable right now”
Maybe not false. But epistemically poor form.
(😭 there has to be a better way of doing this, lol)