I deny that I have any obligation to choose now based on the available information.
What happens if I choose torture and somebody gets tortured for 49 years and then dies of natural causes? Do we get all the dust specs too? Have we gotten rid of 98% of them?
Can I ask for a volunteer from among 3^^^3 people, or do I have to take pot luck?
Do I have to choose right now? Do all 3^^^3 people get their dust specks the moment I decline to choose, or do they get them after the 50 years are up? If the former, what happens if I agree to the torture and then change my mind right after the dust specks didn’t happen?
How do I know any of this is true? What if I get somebody tortured for 50 years and then the dust specks happen anyway? What if I do it and it turns out there aren’t 3^^^3 people in the universe and it was all for nothing? Why should I take somebody’s word about this?
Maybe we could start small. I could volunteer to be tortured for 50 years * 7 billion / 3^^^3 and stop the dust specks from everybody in this one world. I’d volunteer for that in a new york second.
I’m continually faced with choices for myself where the background is quite unclear. Take the contract, and maybe things go bad and it hurts my professional reputation. Wait for a better one and the money is late. Etc. And I make choices where the results won’t show up in my lifetime. Throw mercury batteries in the trash or keep them around and wait for a chance to dispose of them properly. Drive my car to the store or wait a day and combine it with several other trips. Beyond the inconvenience balanced against the money, extra gas burned will have a small effect on billions of people over the next four or so generations. Maybe more than an eyeblink. I don’t know how to quantify those effects and I don’t spend a lot of thought on them. The immediate effects are easier to find out about, so I put most of my thought into those.
Show me the 3^^^3 people and I’ll give them due consideration. Until then it’s a thought experiment and I’ll enjoy some time thinking about it.
I deny that I have any obligation to choose now based on the available information.
What happens if I choose torture and somebody gets tortured for 49 years and then dies of natural causes? Do we get all the dust specs too? Have we gotten rid of 98% of them?
Can I ask for a volunteer from among 3^^^3 people, or do I have to take pot luck?
Do I have to choose right now? Do all 3^^^3 people get their dust specks the moment I decline to choose, or do they get them after the 50 years are up? If the former, what happens if I agree to the torture and then change my mind right after the dust specks didn’t happen?
How do I know any of this is true? What if I get somebody tortured for 50 years and then the dust specks happen anyway? What if I do it and it turns out there aren’t 3^^^3 people in the universe and it was all for nothing? Why should I take somebody’s word about this?
Maybe we could start small. I could volunteer to be tortured for 50 years * 7 billion / 3^^^3 and stop the dust specks from everybody in this one world. I’d volunteer for that in a new york second.
I’m continually faced with choices for myself where the background is quite unclear. Take the contract, and maybe things go bad and it hurts my professional reputation. Wait for a better one and the money is late. Etc. And I make choices where the results won’t show up in my lifetime. Throw mercury batteries in the trash or keep them around and wait for a chance to dispose of them properly. Drive my car to the store or wait a day and combine it with several other trips. Beyond the inconvenience balanced against the money, extra gas burned will have a small effect on billions of people over the next four or so generations. Maybe more than an eyeblink. I don’t know how to quantify those effects and I don’t spend a lot of thought on them. The immediate effects are easier to find out about, so I put most of my thought into those.
Show me the 3^^^3 people and I’ll give them due consideration. Until then it’s a thought experiment and I’ll enjoy some time thinking about it.