Wait, you received evidence that didn’t just refute your hypothesis, it reversed it. If you accept that, shouldn’t you also reverse your proposed remedy? Shouldn’t you now argue _IN FAVOR_ of shutting down more completely—it saves lives both directly by limiting the spread of the virus AND indirectly by slowing the economy.
(note: this is intended to be semi-humorous—my base position is that the economic causes and effects are far too complex and distributed to really predict impact on that level, or to predict what policies might improve what outcomes).
It was brought to my attention on Lesswrong that depressions actually save lives.
Which would make it much harder to build a simple “two curves to flatten” narrative out of.
Wait, you received evidence that didn’t just refute your hypothesis, it reversed it. If you accept that, shouldn’t you also reverse your proposed remedy? Shouldn’t you now argue _IN FAVOR_ of shutting down more completely—it saves lives both directly by limiting the spread of the virus AND indirectly by slowing the economy.
(note: this is intended to be semi-humorous—my base position is that the economic causes and effects are far too complex and distributed to really predict impact on that level, or to predict what policies might improve what outcomes).
I did update from this quite significantly.