Pretty close. I do think that self-locating probabilities can be valid, but determining the most relevant one to a given situation can be difficult. There are a lot more subtle opportunities for error than with more familiar externally supplied probabilities.
In particular, the way in which this choice of self-locating probability is used in this scenario does not suit the payoff schedule and incentives. Transforming it into related scenarios with non-self-locating probabilities is just one way to show that the problem exists.
Pretty close. I do think that self-locating probabilities can be valid, but determining the most relevant one to a given situation can be difficult. There are a lot more subtle opportunities for error than with more familiar externally supplied probabilities.
In particular, the way in which this choice of self-locating probability is used in this scenario does not suit the payoff schedule and incentives. Transforming it into related scenarios with non-self-locating probabilities is just one way to show that the problem exists.