The consensus would converge on it being fake news. No downside to being wrong, so prediction makes would agree with this consensus.
People with professional skills relevant to evaluating the claims who denied the data would rapidly rise to the top of their professions.
No downside to being wrong, so prediction makes would agree with this consensus.
Wouldn’t you expect this info to show up in market interest rates, since you can lose a lot on 6-year loans if you’re wrong about whether the apocalypse is showing up?
Good point. Largely depends on how many ‘fundamentals’ investors there are in debt relative to ‘speculative’ investors.
The consensus would converge on it being fake news. No downside to being wrong, so prediction makes would agree with this consensus.
People with professional skills relevant to evaluating the claims who denied the data would rapidly rise to the top of their professions.
Wouldn’t you expect this info to show up in market interest rates, since you can lose a lot on 6-year loans if you’re wrong about whether the apocalypse is showing up?
Good point. Largely depends on how many ‘fundamentals’ investors there are in debt relative to ‘speculative’ investors.