it seems to me that you want properly to be asking “How do we know this empirical thing ends up looking like it’s close to the abstraction?” and not “Can you show me that this abstraction is a very powerful one?”
I agree that “powerful” is probably not the best term here, so I’ll stop using it going forward (note, though, that I didn’t use it in my previous comment, which I endorse more than my claims in the original debate).
But before I ask “How do we know this empirical thing ends up looking like it’s close to the abstraction?”, I need to ask “Does the abstraction even make sense?” Because you have the abstraction in your head, and I don’t, and so whenever you tell me that X is a (non-advance) prediction of your theory of consequentialism, I end up in a pretty similar epistemic state as if George Soros tells me that X is a prediction of the theory of reflexivity, or if a complexity theorist tells me that X is a prediction of the theory of self-organisation. The problem in those two cases is less that the abstraction is a bad fit for this specific domain, and more that the abstraction is not sufficiently well-defined (outside very special cases) to even be the type of thing that can robustly make predictions.
Perhaps another way of saying it is that they’re not crisp/robust/coherent concepts (although I’m open to other terms, I don’t think these ones are particularly good). And it would be useful for me to have evidence that the abstraction of consequentialism you’re using is a crisper concept than Soros’ theory of reflexivity or the theory of self-organisation. If you could explain the full abstraction to me, that’d be the most reliable way—but given the difficulties of doing so, my backup plan was to ask for impressive advance predictions, which are the type of evidence that I don’t think Soros could come up with.
I also think that, when you talk about me being raised to hold certain standards of praiseworthiness, you’re still ascribing too much modesty epistemology to me. I mainly care about novel predictions or applications insofar as they help me distinguish crisp abstractions from evocative metaphors. To me it’s the same type of rationality technique as asking people to make bets, to help distinguish post-hoc confabulations from actual predictions.
Of course there’s a social component to both, but that’s not what I’m primarily interested in. And of course there’s a strand of naive science-worship which thinks you have to follow the Rules in order to get anywhere, but I’d thank you to assume I’m at least making a more interesting error than that.
Lastly, on probability theory and Newtonian mechanics: I agree that you shouldn’t question how much sense it makes to use calculus in the way that you described, but that’s because the application of calculus to mechanics is so clearly-defined that it’d be very hard for the type of confusion I talked about above to sneak in. I’d put evolutionary theory halfway between them: it’s partly a novel abstraction, and partly a novel empirical truth. And in this case I do think you have to be very careful in applying the core abstraction of evolution to things like cultural evolution, because it’s easy to do so in a confused way.
Lastly, on probability theory and Newtonian mechanics: I agree that you shouldn’t question how much sense it makes to use calculus in the way that you described, but that’s because the application of calculus to mechanics is so clearly-defined that it’d be very hard for the type of confusion I talked about above to sneak in. I’d put evolutionary theory halfway between them: it’s partly a novel abstraction, and partly a novel empirical truth.
I think this might be a big part of the disagreement/confusion. I think of evolution (via natural selection) as something like a ‘Platonic inevitability’ in the same way that probability theory and Newtonian mechanics are. (Daniel Dennett’s book Darwin’s Dangerous Idea does a good job I think of imparting intuitions about the ‘Platonic inevitability’ of it.)
You’re right that there are empirical truths – about how well some system ‘fits’ the ‘shape’ of the abstract theory. But once you’ve ‘done the homework exercises’ of mapping a few systems to the components of the abstract theory, it seems somewhat unnecessary to repeat that same work for every new system. Similarly, once you can ‘look’ at something and observe that, e.g. there are multiple ‘discrete’ instances of some kind of abstract category, you can be (relatively) confident that counting groups or sets of those instances will ‘obey’ arithmetic.
I must admit tho that I very much appreciate some of the specific examples that other commenters have supplied for applications of expected utility theory!
(Daniel Dennett’s book Darwin’s Dangerous Idea does a good job I think of imparting intuitions about the ‘Platonic inevitability’ of it.)
Possibly when Richard says “evolutionary theory” he means stuff like ‘all life on Earth has descended with modification from a common pool of ancestors’, not just ‘selection is a thing’? It’s also an empirical claim that any of the differences between real-world organisms in the same breeding population are heritable.
‘all life on Earth has descended with modification from a common pool of ancestors’
That’s pretty reasonable, but, yes, I might not have a good sense of what Richard means by “evolutionary theory”.
It’s also an empirical claim that any of the differences between real-world organisms in the same breeding population are heritable.
Yes! That’s a good qualification and important for lots of things.
But I think the claim that any/many differences are heritable was massively overdetermined by the time Darwin published his ideas/theory of evolution via natural selection. I think it’s easy to overlook the extremely strong prior that “organisms in the same breeding population” produce offspring that is almost always , and obviously, member of the same class/category/population. That certainly seems to imply that a huge variety of possible differences are obviously heritable.
I admit tho that it’s very difficult (e.g. for me) to adopt a reasonable ‘anti-perspective’. I also remember reading something not too long ago about how systematic animal breeding was extremely rare until relatively recently, so that’s possibly not as extremely strong of evidence as it now seems like it might have been (with the benefit of hindsight).
I agree that “powerful” is probably not the best term here, so I’ll stop using it going forward (note, though, that I didn’t use it in my previous comment, which I endorse more than my claims in the original debate).
But before I ask “How do we know this empirical thing ends up looking like it’s close to the abstraction?”, I need to ask “Does the abstraction even make sense?” Because you have the abstraction in your head, and I don’t, and so whenever you tell me that X is a (non-advance) prediction of your theory of consequentialism, I end up in a pretty similar epistemic state as if George Soros tells me that X is a prediction of the theory of reflexivity, or if a complexity theorist tells me that X is a prediction of the theory of self-organisation. The problem in those two cases is less that the abstraction is a bad fit for this specific domain, and more that the abstraction is not sufficiently well-defined (outside very special cases) to even be the type of thing that can robustly make predictions.
Perhaps another way of saying it is that they’re not crisp/robust/coherent concepts (although I’m open to other terms, I don’t think these ones are particularly good). And it would be useful for me to have evidence that the abstraction of consequentialism you’re using is a crisper concept than Soros’ theory of reflexivity or the theory of self-organisation. If you could explain the full abstraction to me, that’d be the most reliable way—but given the difficulties of doing so, my backup plan was to ask for impressive advance predictions, which are the type of evidence that I don’t think Soros could come up with.
I also think that, when you talk about me being raised to hold certain standards of praiseworthiness, you’re still ascribing too much modesty epistemology to me. I mainly care about novel predictions or applications insofar as they help me distinguish crisp abstractions from evocative metaphors. To me it’s the same type of rationality technique as asking people to make bets, to help distinguish post-hoc confabulations from actual predictions.
Of course there’s a social component to both, but that’s not what I’m primarily interested in. And of course there’s a strand of naive science-worship which thinks you have to follow the Rules in order to get anywhere, but I’d thank you to assume I’m at least making a more interesting error than that.
Lastly, on probability theory and Newtonian mechanics: I agree that you shouldn’t question how much sense it makes to use calculus in the way that you described, but that’s because the application of calculus to mechanics is so clearly-defined that it’d be very hard for the type of confusion I talked about above to sneak in. I’d put evolutionary theory halfway between them: it’s partly a novel abstraction, and partly a novel empirical truth. And in this case I do think you have to be very careful in applying the core abstraction of evolution to things like cultural evolution, because it’s easy to do so in a confused way.
I think this might be a big part of the disagreement/confusion. I think of evolution (via natural selection) as something like a ‘Platonic inevitability’ in the same way that probability theory and Newtonian mechanics are. (Daniel Dennett’s book Darwin’s Dangerous Idea does a good job I think of imparting intuitions about the ‘Platonic inevitability’ of it.)
You’re right that there are empirical truths – about how well some system ‘fits’ the ‘shape’ of the abstract theory. But once you’ve ‘done the homework exercises’ of mapping a few systems to the components of the abstract theory, it seems somewhat unnecessary to repeat that same work for every new system. Similarly, once you can ‘look’ at something and observe that, e.g. there are multiple ‘discrete’ instances of some kind of abstract category, you can be (relatively) confident that counting groups or sets of those instances will ‘obey’ arithmetic.
I must admit tho that I very much appreciate some of the specific examples that other commenters have supplied for applications of expected utility theory!
Possibly when Richard says “evolutionary theory” he means stuff like ‘all life on Earth has descended with modification from a common pool of ancestors’, not just ‘selection is a thing’? It’s also an empirical claim that any of the differences between real-world organisms in the same breeding population are heritable.
That’s pretty reasonable, but, yes, I might not have a good sense of what Richard means by “evolutionary theory”.
Yes! That’s a good qualification and important for lots of things.
But I think the claim that any/many differences are heritable was massively overdetermined by the time Darwin published his ideas/theory of evolution via natural selection. I think it’s easy to overlook the extremely strong prior that “organisms in the same breeding population” produce offspring that is almost always , and obviously, member of the same class/category/population. That certainly seems to imply that a huge variety of possible differences are obviously heritable.
I admit tho that it’s very difficult (e.g. for me) to adopt a reasonable ‘anti-perspective’. I also remember reading something not too long ago about how systematic animal breeding was extremely rare until relatively recently, so that’s possibly not as extremely strong of evidence as it now seems like it might have been (with the benefit of hindsight).