One of my updates from reading this is that Rapid vs. Gradual takeoff seems like an even more important variable for many people’s model than I had assumed. Making this debate less one-sided might thus be super valuable even if writing up arguments is costly.
I agree that this thread makes it clearer why takeoff speeds matter to people but I always want to ask why people think sufficient work is going to get done in that extended 4-10 years even with access to proto-AGI to directly study.
One of my updates from reading this is that Rapid vs. Gradual takeoff seems like an even more important variable for many people’s model than I had assumed. Making this debate less one-sided might thus be super valuable even if writing up arguments is costly.
I agree that this thread makes it clearer why takeoff speeds matter to people but I always want to ask why people think sufficient work is going to get done in that extended 4-10 years even with access to proto-AGI to directly study.