[note: I don’t identify as EA, because I am a utility monster. I am somewhat altruistic in that I do care about the quantity and distribution of human experiences, and I aim to be effective, but I am not Utilitarian in my aggregation function. Discount my opinion as appropriate. ]
I suspect you should split your uncertainty between “earning to give vs direct action” and “Near-term EA vs Longtermist causes”. Skepticism is justified on both dimensions, but as the numbers get bigger and probabilities smaller, the risk of delegating the mechanisms of spending (which ETG is) seems to be higher. In other words, ETG seems great if you have a comparative advantage in something that pays well, and you’re focused on measurable, clear improvements. And it seems … less great if you’re unsure of the mechanisms by which the money is solving problems.
The problem is that direct action is EVEN HARDER to evaluate. If your comparative advantage is in something related to malaria prevention, that’s probably more valuable than ETG. If it’s something more prosaic, ETG is a more direct path to impact.
[note: I don’t identify as EA, because I am a utility monster. I am somewhat altruistic in that I do care about the quantity and distribution of human experiences, and I aim to be effective, but I am not Utilitarian in my aggregation function. Discount my opinion as appropriate. ]
I suspect you should split your uncertainty between “earning to give vs direct action” and “Near-term EA vs Longtermist causes”. Skepticism is justified on both dimensions, but as the numbers get bigger and probabilities smaller, the risk of delegating the mechanisms of spending (which ETG is) seems to be higher. In other words, ETG seems great if you have a comparative advantage in something that pays well, and you’re focused on measurable, clear improvements. And it seems … less great if you’re unsure of the mechanisms by which the money is solving problems.
The problem is that direct action is EVEN HARDER to evaluate. If your comparative advantage is in something related to malaria prevention, that’s probably more valuable than ETG. If it’s something more prosaic, ETG is a more direct path to impact.