“I think an AGI is 30 years away and that society does not have 30 years up its sleeve.”
The outside view, treating your prediction as an instance of the class of similar predictions made for centuries, suggests this is false. Do you have compelling reasons to override the outside view in this case?
The compelling reason is that this is what geologists believe, i.e. Peak Oil. Previous centuries of predictions are not relevant as they do not relate to decline (or not) in the production rate of the today’s dominant power sources.
“I think an AGI is 30 years away and that society does not have 30 years up its sleeve.”
The outside view, treating your prediction as an instance of the class of similar predictions made for centuries, suggests this is false. Do you have compelling reasons to override the outside view in this case?
The compelling reason is that this is what geologists believe, i.e. Peak Oil. Previous centuries of predictions are not relevant as they do not relate to decline (or not) in the production rate of the today’s dominant power sources.