James_Miller comments on Calibrating your probability estimates of world events: Russia vs Ukraine, 6 months later.

[James_Miller]

This is how you overcome the Schelling point—by doing a calculated very small step, and then calling your opponent irrational if he wants to react.

This Yes, Prime Minster video is relevant: https://​​www.youtube.com/​​watch?v=IX_d_vMKswE