The odds of Ukraine reclaiming complete political control over ALL areas of the country: 10%
The odds of Ukraine reclaiming complete political control over ALL areas of the country EXCEPT Crimea: 30%
The odds of Russia de facto annexing some chunk of Eastern Ukraine then setting up a new border: 20%
The odds of invasion of the rest of Ukraine by Russia: 5%
Other situations, especially one where Russia retains Crimea and some parts of Eastern Ukraine but the situation is still in flux: 35%
Why? I think that the situation will escalate further, but not THAT much further. Diplomacy and a firmer NATO attitude will stop Russia from committing to full-scale invasion, but won’t prompt it to give any land back.
My guesses for the next 6 months:
The odds of Ukraine reclaiming complete political control over ALL areas of the country: 10%
The odds of Ukraine reclaiming complete political control over ALL areas of the country EXCEPT Crimea: 30%
The odds of Russia de facto annexing some chunk of Eastern Ukraine then setting up a new border: 20%
The odds of invasion of the rest of Ukraine by Russia: 5%
Other situations, especially one where Russia retains Crimea and some parts of Eastern Ukraine but the situation is still in flux: 35%
Why? I think that the situation will escalate further, but not THAT much further. Diplomacy and a firmer NATO attitude will stop Russia from committing to full-scale invasion, but won’t prompt it to give any land back.