You thought the odds of a Russian intervention were less than 5%
No, he didn’t. He thought the odds of Russia invading Ukraine in the same fashion as the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan were 5%. This is a rather different thing.
Something like that, yes. I was talking about Russian tanks openly rolling across the border. But Putin found a way to do effectively the same without being so brazen. Which was one of the factors I missed.
No, he didn’t. He thought the odds of Russia invading Ukraine in the same fashion as the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan were 5%. This is a rather different thing.
Something like that, yes. I was talking about Russian tanks openly rolling across the border. But Putin found a way to do effectively the same without being so brazen. Which was one of the factors I missed.
I’ll going to look at the rationality skill of being able to tell whether you’ve anchored on a prototype. Has this already been explored?
I am not sure what you mean, maybe worth asking in the open thread.