I’d be interested in seeing your reasoning written out in a top-level post. 2:1 seems beyond optimistic to me, especially if you give AI before uploading 9:1, but I’m sure you have your reasons. Explaining a few of these ‘personally credible stories,’ and what classes you place them in such that they sum to 10% total may be helpful. This goes for why you think FAI has such a high chance or succeeding as well.
Also, I believe I used the phrase ‘outside view’ incorrectly, since I didn’t mean reference classes. I was interested to know if there are people who are not part of your community that help you with number crunching on the tech-side. An ‘unbiased’ source of probabilities, if you will.
I think of my community as essentially consisting of the people who are willing to do this sort of analysis, so almost axiomatically no.
The simplest reason for thinking that FAI is (relatively) likely to succeed is the same reason for thinking that slavery ending or world peace are more likely than one might assume from psychology or from economics, namely that people who think about them are unusually motivated to try to bring them about.
I’d be interested in seeing your reasoning written out in a top-level post. 2:1 seems beyond optimistic to me, especially if you give AI before uploading 9:1, but I’m sure you have your reasons. Explaining a few of these ‘personally credible stories,’ and what classes you place them in such that they sum to 10% total may be helpful. This goes for why you think FAI has such a high chance or succeeding as well.
Also, I believe I used the phrase ‘outside view’ incorrectly, since I didn’t mean reference classes. I was interested to know if there are people who are not part of your community that help you with number crunching on the tech-side. An ‘unbiased’ source of probabilities, if you will.
I think of my community as essentially consisting of the people who are willing to do this sort of analysis, so almost axiomatically no.
The simplest reason for thinking that FAI is (relatively) likely to succeed is the same reason for thinking that slavery ending or world peace are more likely than one might assume from psychology or from economics, namely that people who think about them are unusually motivated to try to bring them about.