I think the analysis basically derives from modeling weather as something like a normal distribution around a mean (climate). If the mean of the distribution increases, the probability mass on a fixed region above the mean increases, often dramatically. See this post for a deeper dive on this phenomenon: https://putanumonit.com/2015/11/10/003-soccer1/
I don’t think anyone is arguing that the variance of temperatures is increasing, or at least that’s not what people usually mean. There are second order effects with things like shifting El Niño, but no one I’ve heard thinks they’re going to make rare cold weather events more likely to a dangerous extent.
I think the analysis basically derives from modeling weather as something like a normal distribution around a mean (climate). If the mean of the distribution increases, the probability mass on a fixed region above the mean increases, often dramatically. See this post for a deeper dive on this phenomenon: https://putanumonit.com/2015/11/10/003-soccer1/
I don’t think anyone is arguing that the variance of temperatures is increasing, or at least that’s not what people usually mean. There are second order effects with things like shifting El Niño, but no one I’ve heard thinks they’re going to make rare cold weather events more likely to a dangerous extent.