In the west, I think the fall of the Western Roman Empire was probably a significant hit, and caused a major setback in economic growth in Europe.
Attribution of causality is tricky with this event, but I would agree if you said the fall coincided with a major slowdown in European economic growth.
China had its bloody Three Kingdom period, and later the An Lushan rebellion.
I think a problem re: China is that a lot of population decline estimates for China are based on the official census, and as far as I know China didn’t have a formal census before the Xin dynasty, and certainly not before unification in the 3rd century BC. So the fact that we don’t see comparable population declines reported may just be an artifact of that measurement issue. We certainly see plenty of them in the second millennium.
There was the Muslim conquest of the Mediterranean, Persia and Pakistan, though I don’t know if that was unusually bloody.
I haven’t seen estimates of this that put it anywhere near the Mongol conquests, so I would assume not particularly bloody relative to what was to come later. I would also guess that the Islamic world probably saw significant population growth around that time.
These might be small fluctuations in the grand scheme of things or add up to a period of enough turmoil and strife in the most populous regions of the world to slow growth down.
Yeah, it’s possible that this is the explanation, but if so it’s rather hard to know because there’s no principled way to compare events like these to analogs in other time periods.
Attribution of causality is tricky with this event, but I would agree if you said the fall coincided with a major slowdown in European economic growth.
Yes, I suppose the arrow could go the other way around—that economic recession caused the fall. Or really, probably just a feedback loop of stuff going to shit. Sorry for the unwarranted implication.
I think a problem re: China is that a lot of population decline estimates for China are based on the official census, and as far as I know China didn’t have a formal census before the Xin dynasty, and certainly not before unification in the 3rd century BC. So the fact that we don’t see comparable population declines reported may just be an artifact of that measurement issue. We certainly see plenty of them in the second millennium.
Yeah, just suggesting possible sources. But also, any estimates of population growth in the 1-1000 AD range must account for China, so if we can’t trust the census, are you sure your figures too aren’t affected by this fundamental problem?
Anyway, this looks like an interesting history problem—first, figuring out if the effect is real, and then, if it is, what caused it. But there’s probably enough research for a PhD, or even a whole career, in such a wide field. It’s a super complex question.
Attribution of causality is tricky with this event, but I would agree if you said the fall coincided with a major slowdown in European economic growth.
I think a problem re: China is that a lot of population decline estimates for China are based on the official census, and as far as I know China didn’t have a formal census before the Xin dynasty, and certainly not before unification in the 3rd century BC. So the fact that we don’t see comparable population declines reported may just be an artifact of that measurement issue. We certainly see plenty of them in the second millennium.
I haven’t seen estimates of this that put it anywhere near the Mongol conquests, so I would assume not particularly bloody relative to what was to come later. I would also guess that the Islamic world probably saw significant population growth around that time.
Yeah, it’s possible that this is the explanation, but if so it’s rather hard to know because there’s no principled way to compare events like these to analogs in other time periods.
Yes, I suppose the arrow could go the other way around—that economic recession caused the fall. Or really, probably just a feedback loop of stuff going to shit. Sorry for the unwarranted implication.
Yeah, just suggesting possible sources. But also, any estimates of population growth in the 1-1000 AD range must account for China, so if we can’t trust the census, are you sure your figures too aren’t affected by this fundamental problem?
Anyway, this looks like an interesting history problem—first, figuring out if the effect is real, and then, if it is, what caused it. But there’s probably enough research for a PhD, or even a whole career, in such a wide field. It’s a super complex question.