I’ve actually written about this subject before, and I agree that the first plague pandemic could have been significant: perhaps killing around 8% of the global population in the four years from 541 to 544. However, it’s also worth noting that our evidence for this decline is rather scant; we know that the death toll was very high in Constantinople but not much about what happened outside the capital, mostly because nobody was there to write it down. So it’s also entirely conceivable that the death toll was much lower than this. The controversy about this continues to this day in the literature, as far as I know.
The hypothesis that the bubonic plague was responsible is interesting, but by itself doesn’t explain the more granular data which suggests the slowdown starts around 200 BC and we already see close to no growth in global population from e.g. 200 AD to 500 AD. HYDE doesn’t have this, but the McEvedy and Jones dataset does.
It’s possible, and perhaps even likely, that the explanation is not monocasual. In this case, the first plague pandemic could have been one of the many factors that dragged population growth down throughout the first millennium.
I’ve actually written about this subject before, and I agree that the first plague pandemic could have been significant: perhaps killing around 8% of the global population in the four years from 541 to 544. However, it’s also worth noting that our evidence for this decline is rather scant; we know that the death toll was very high in Constantinople but not much about what happened outside the capital, mostly because nobody was there to write it down. So it’s also entirely conceivable that the death toll was much lower than this. The controversy about this continues to this day in the literature, as far as I know.
The hypothesis that the bubonic plague was responsible is interesting, but by itself doesn’t explain the more granular data which suggests the slowdown starts around 200 BC and we already see close to no growth in global population from e.g. 200 AD to 500 AD. HYDE doesn’t have this, but the McEvedy and Jones dataset does.
It’s possible, and perhaps even likely, that the explanation is not monocasual. In this case, the first plague pandemic could have been one of the many factors that dragged population growth down throughout the first millennium.