If one isn’t already well versed in rationality, I can see this quote as encouraging people to make overconfident predictions on the basis of insufficient evidence.
Yeah, I’d be fine if this one just died now. I found it somewhere else then tried to tack some rationality to the end of it, with no particular success.
This doesn’t make sense to me. The presence or absence of evidence does not determine whether a fact exists or not. Evidence refers to the basis for a belief. There can be evidence for non-facts (e.g., opinions), as well as no evidence for facts (e.g., whether the nth heaviest dinosaur that ever existed was doing something that we expect there to be a 50% chance of it doing when it was exactly 1 year old).
If one isn’t already well versed in rationality, I can see this quote as encouraging people to make overconfident predictions on the basis of insufficient evidence.
Fair enough. How about
Better, but I think that we’re still losing too much information in it for this to be useful.
Yeah, I’d be fine if this one just died now. I found it somewhere else then tried to tack some rationality to the end of it, with no particular success.
This doesn’t make sense to me. The presence or absence of evidence does not determine whether a fact exists or not. Evidence refers to the basis for a belief. There can be evidence for non-facts (e.g., opinions), as well as no evidence for facts (e.g., whether the nth heaviest dinosaur that ever existed was doing something that we expect there to be a 50% chance of it doing when it was exactly 1 year old).