If it doesn’t matter if you forget what you had to eat last Thursday, it doesn’t matter if you lie to yourself about what you did have to eat last Thursday.
Not true. Suppose that around half the time I eat salad, and half the time I eat chicken. I “forget” what I had to eat yesterday by pointing to a standard probability distribution that says 50% probability of salad, 50% probability of chicken. This is an approximate but well-calibrated distribution (so long as I’m equally likely to forget eating salad or eating chicken, rather than selectively forgetting salads). I’ve increased the entropy of my beliefs but not shifted their calibration away from the zero mark; I am neither underconfident nor overconfident. The map is fuzzier but it reflects the territory.
On the other hand, if I install the belief that I ate cyanide yesterday, I may panic and call the Poison Control center—this is a highly concentrated probability distribution that is wrong; not well-calibrated. This makes me stupid, not just uncertain. And the map no longer reflects the territory, and was drawn by some other algorithm instead.
Not true. Suppose that around half the time I eat salad, and half the time I eat chicken. I “forget” what I had to eat yesterday by pointing to a standard probability distribution that says 50% probability of salad, 50% probability of chicken. This is an approximate but well-calibrated distribution (so long as I’m equally likely to forget eating salad or eating chicken, rather than selectively forgetting salads). I’ve increased the entropy of my beliefs but not shifted their calibration away from the zero mark; I am neither underconfident nor overconfident. The map is fuzzier but it reflects the territory.
On the other hand, if I install the belief that I ate cyanide yesterday, I may panic and call the Poison Control center—this is a highly concentrated probability distribution that is wrong; not well-calibrated. This makes me stupid, not just uncertain. And the map no longer reflects the territory, and was drawn by some other algorithm instead.