[LINK] Lincoln on Rationality

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http://​​opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/​​2011/​​12/​​24/​​a-fateful-christmas-meeting/​​

But Lincoln, like Chase, harbored doubts about taking a conciliatory approach. At the conclusion of what became a four-hour meeting, the president proposed to Seward that they both draft arguments supporting their positions. He and Seward would then face off the next day like lawyers competing in court to win the jury’s verdict.

The meeting on Dec. 26 proved to be both shorter and less combative, with the cabinet quickly agreeing to the release of Mason and Slidell. Lincoln, despite his position the day before, raised no objections. Surprised that his fiercest opponent had changed his mind, Seward asked the president what had prompted the reversal. “I found that I could not make an argument that would satisfy my own mind, and that proved to me your ground was the right one,” replied the president.

This reminded me of Groupthink by Irving L. Janis (also see Wikipedia’s article), which analyzed how bad decisions are made (e.g. the Bay of Pigs Invasion) and avoided (e.g. the Cuban Missile Crisis).

[occlude]

Thanks, I’m always looking for sneaky ways to reduce inferential distances with my Facebook friends. My subversive anti-faith sermon posted with this article was:

On Christmas day, 1861, Lincoln’s ability to be skeptical of his own intuitions helped him avert war with Britain.

It is easy to assert, without evidence, what we believe, hope, or wish to be true. It is more difficult, as our human biases compel us to dismiss dissenting voices, to properly doubt, to give reality a fair hearing, and to come to a conclusion at odds with who we were the day before.

EDIT: Typo correction; Lincoln ≠ 1961.