I would be very interested in reading about your timeline opinions after you play with the Uncertain Future Web App which was created to help clarify some of these timing issues. Also, the software behind the site was open sourced a few months ago so if you are frustrated by that tool it might be possible to improve it based on feedback.
I didn’t find the app very helpful in refining my estimate. There are too many particular ingredients (especially: how hard is AI? How well do you have to simulate a brain?) with incredible uncertainty. Not coincidentally, this is the same reason that I can’t come up with a good estimate on my own.
I would be very interested in reading about your timeline opinions after you play with the Uncertain Future Web App which was created to help clarify some of these timing issues. Also, the software behind the site was open sourced a few months ago so if you are frustrated by that tool it might be possible to improve it based on feedback.
I didn’t find the app very helpful in refining my estimate. There are too many particular ingredients (especially: how hard is AI? How well do you have to simulate a brain?) with incredible uncertainty. Not coincidentally, this is the same reason that I can’t come up with a good estimate on my own.