Timescales don’t just matter in this way. The more time that goes on the faster an AGI will be to start off since the default hardware will be so much better. That means that if any sort of AGI is restricted primarily by the right insights and not general processing power and it takes a while to hit on those insights, then the chance of bad things happening goes up. So even as the timescale extends outwards that is arguably more of a reason to focus on Friendliness related issues.
That said, I have absolutely no idea how this balances with the timescale issues discussed in your post.
Timescales don’t just matter in this way. The more time that goes on the faster an AGI will be to start off since the default hardware will be so much better. That means that if any sort of AGI is restricted primarily by the right insights and not general processing power and it takes a while to hit on those insights, then the chance of bad things happening goes up. So even as the timescale extends outwards that is arguably more of a reason to focus on Friendliness related issues.
That said, I have absolutely no idea how this balances with the timescale issues discussed in your post.