It seems to me that the difference between your estimate of the time scale and other people’s estimates of the time scale is that everyone has different garbage and the computation is GIGO. People aren’t disagreeing about facts, they’re disagreeing about the weights of fit parameters, which have so little data to work off of the uncertainties dwarf the values.
It seems like the resolution is to get rid of your feeling that you can improve your timescale guess, and to get rid of any paralysis you have on making decisions with imperfect information. That’s a necessary part of life.
It seems to me that the difference between your estimate of the time scale and other people’s estimates of the time scale is that everyone has different garbage and the computation is GIGO. People aren’t disagreeing about facts, they’re disagreeing about the weights of fit parameters, which have so little data to work off of the uncertainties dwarf the values.
It seems like the resolution is to get rid of your feeling that you can improve your timescale guess, and to get rid of any paralysis you have on making decisions with imperfect information. That’s a necessary part of life.