Eyeballing the graph in light of the fact that the 50th percentile is 2034.8, it looks like P(AGI | no AGI before 2040) is about 30%. Maybe that’s too low, but it feels about right to me, unfortunately. 20 years from now, science in general (or at least in AI research) may have stagnated, with Moore’s Law etc. ended and a plateau in new AI researchers. Or maybe a world war or other disaster will have derailed everything. Etc. Meanwhile 20 years is plenty of time for powerful new technologies to appear that accelerate AI research.
This is my all things considered forecast, though I’m open to the idea that I should weight other people’s opinions more than I do. It’s not that different from my inside view forecast, i.e. I haven’t modified it much in light of the opinions of others. I haven’t tried to graph my inside view, it would probably look similar to this only with a higher peak and a bit less probability mass in the “never” category and in the “more than 20 years” region.
Is your P(AGI | no AGI before 2040) really that low?
Eyeballing the graph in light of the fact that the 50th percentile is 2034.8, it looks like P(AGI | no AGI before 2040) is about 30%. Maybe that’s too low, but it feels about right to me, unfortunately. 20 years from now, science in general (or at least in AI research) may have stagnated, with Moore’s Law etc. ended and a plateau in new AI researchers. Or maybe a world war or other disaster will have derailed everything. Etc. Meanwhile 20 years is plenty of time for powerful new technologies to appear that accelerate AI research.
Is this your inside view, or your “all things considered” forecast? I.e., how do you update, if at all, on other people disagreeing with you?
This is my all things considered forecast, though I’m open to the idea that I should weight other people’s opinions more than I do. It’s not that different from my inside view forecast, i.e. I haven’t modified it much in light of the opinions of others. I haven’t tried to graph my inside view, it would probably look similar to this only with a higher peak and a bit less probability mass in the “never” category and in the “more than 20 years” region.