I’m not a superforecaster. I’d be happy to talk more about my models if you like. You may be interested to know that my prediction was based on aggregating various different models, and also that I did try to account for things usually taking longer than expected. I’m trying to arrange a conversation with Ben Pace, perhaps you could join. I could also send you a powerpoint I made, or we could video chat.
I can answer your question #3. There’s been some good work on the question recently by people at OpenPhil and AI Impacts.
I’m not a superforecaster. I’d be happy to talk more about my models if you like. You may be interested to know that my prediction was based on aggregating various different models, and also that I did try to account for things usually taking longer than expected. I’m trying to arrange a conversation with Ben Pace, perhaps you could join. I could also send you a powerpoint I made, or we could video chat.
I can answer your question #3. There’s been some good work on the question recently by people at OpenPhil and AI Impacts.