Oh, whoa, OK I guess I was looking at your first forecast, not your second. Your second is substantially different. Yep let’s talk then? Want to video chat someday?
I tried to account for the planning fallacy in my forecast, but yeah I admit I probably didn’t account for it enough. Idk.
My response to your story is that yeah, that’s a possible scenario, but it’s a “knife edge” result. It might take <5 OOMs more, in which case it’ll happen with existing overhang. Or it’ll take >7 OOMs more compute, in which case it’ll not happen until new insights/paradigms are invented. If it takes 5-7 OOMs more, then yeah, we’ll first burn through the overhang and then need to launch some huge project in order to reach AGI. But that’s less likely than the other two scenarios.
(I mean, it’s not literally knife’s edge. It’s probably about as likely as the we-get-AGI-real-soon scenario. But then again I have plenty of probability mass around 2030, and I think 10 years from now is plenty of time for more Manhattan projects.)
Oh, whoa, OK I guess I was looking at your first forecast, not your second. Your second is substantially different. Yep let’s talk then? Want to video chat someday?
I tried to account for the planning fallacy in my forecast, but yeah I admit I probably didn’t account for it enough. Idk.
My response to your story is that yeah, that’s a possible scenario, but it’s a “knife edge” result. It might take <5 OOMs more, in which case it’ll happen with existing overhang. Or it’ll take >7 OOMs more compute, in which case it’ll not happen until new insights/paradigms are invented. If it takes 5-7 OOMs more, then yeah, we’ll first burn through the overhang and then need to launch some huge project in order to reach AGI. But that’s less likely than the other two scenarios.
(I mean, it’s not literally knife’s edge. It’s probably about as likely as the we-get-AGI-real-soon scenario. But then again I have plenty of probability mass around 2030, and I think 10 years from now is plenty of time for more Manhattan projects.)
Let’s do it. I’m super duper busy, please ping me if I’ve not replied here within a week.
Ping?
Sounds good. Also, check out the new image I added to my answer! This image summarizes the weightiest model in my mind.