Your prediction has the interesting property that (starting in 2021), you assign more probability to the next n seconds/ n years than to any subsequent period of n seconds/ n years.
Specifically, I think your distribution assigns too much probability about AGI in the immediately next three months/year/5 years, but I feel like we do have a bunch of information that points us away from such short timelines. If one takes that into account, then one might end up with a bump, maybe like so, where the location of the bump is debatable, and the decay afterwards is per Laplace’s rule.
Your prediction has the interesting property that (starting in 2021), you assign more probability to the next n seconds/ n years than to any subsequent period of n seconds/ n years.
Specifically, I think your distribution assigns too much probability about AGI in the immediately next three months/year/5 years, but I feel like we do have a bunch of information that points us away from such short timelines. If one takes that into account, then one might end up with a bump, maybe like so, where the location of the bump is debatable, and the decay afterwards is per Laplace’s rule.
The location of the bump could be estimated by using Daniel Kokotajlo’s answer as the “earliest plausible AGI.”