https://elicit.ought.org/builder/J2lLvPmAY quick estimate, mostly influenced by the “outside view” and other commenters (of which I found the reasoning of tim_dettmer to be most convincing).
This links to a uniform distribution, guessing you didn’t mean that! To link to your distribution, take a snapshot of your distribution, and then copy the snapshot url (which appears as a timestamp at the bottom of the page) and link that.
https://elicit.ought.org/builder/J2lLvPmAY quick estimate, mostly influenced by the “outside view” and other commenters (of which I found the reasoning of tim_dettmer to be most convincing).
This links to a uniform distribution, guessing you didn’t mean that! To link to your distribution, take a snapshot of your distribution, and then copy the snapshot url (which appears as a timestamp at the bottom of the page) and link that.